If you like Sun King in the Classic...

King Glorious · #1 10-24-2006, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Last year's JCGC as well, where he finished third (gasp!!).

I think all results pre-2006 for Sun King can absolutely be tossed. THis is a changed horse from 3YO to 4YO seasons.

One thing about him that hasn't changed though is that he's STILL not a grade one winner. What has happened is that he's not gotten better but all of the good horses that were running with him last year are retired or injured so he's just facing weaker so he's looking better.

Pointg5 · #2 10-24-2006, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One thing about him that hasn't changed though is that he's STILL not a grade one winner. What has happened is that he's not gotten better but all of the good horses that were running with him last year are retired or injured so he's just facing weaker so he's looking better.

When they invent a time machine to bring back those other good horses, let me know...

King Glorious · #3 10-24-2006, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

When they invent a time machine to bring back those other good horses, let me know...

They won't need to. There are some better ones that he'll be facing in the Classic, namely Bernardini, Lava Man, and George Washington. I say Sun King gets nowhere close to them at the finish. He's one of the most overrated horses in training. Never won a grade one race. Only stakes wins this year are in sprints and all of a sudden, he's a serious contender in the world's best 10f race? Please.

Pointg5 · #4 10-24-2006, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

They won't need to. There are some better ones that he'll be facing in the Classic, namely Bernardini, Lava Man, and George Washington. I say Sun King gets nowhere close to them at the finish. He's one of the most overrated horses in training. Never won a grade one race. Only stakes wins this year are in sprints and all of a sudden, he's a serious contender in the world's best 10f race? Please.

That's where you are showing your obvious bias against him, you are saying that he won't be running against the horses from last year to say he hasn't improved, what's that got to do with who he's run against this year? Then you switch your arguement by pointing out the horses he will face this year...I happen to like Sun King, I don't think he will win, but a 2nd or 3rd wouldn't surprise me, he ran a nice Met Mile and his race against Invasior was pretty good. Think critically, not with a bias towards a horse...I am no fan of Bernardini, but I acknowledge his imense talent...

blackthroatedwind · #5 10-24-2006, 01:35 PM

KG is just mad they aren't running Sun King in the BC Steeplechase this coming weekend.

Tracy Farmer really needs to start thinking outside the box!

King Glorious · #6 10-24-2006, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

That's where you are showing your obvious bias against him, you are saying that he won't be running against the horses from last year to say he hasn't improved, what's that got to do with who he's run against this year? Then you switch your arguement by pointing out the horses he will face this year...I happen to like Sun King, I don't think he will win, but a 2nd or 3rd wouldn't surprise me, he ran a nice Met Mile and his race against Invasior was pretty good. Think critically, not with a bias towards a horse...I am no fan of Bernardini, but I acknowledge his imense talent...

I'm saying that the horses he's been facing thus far this year are inferior to what he was facing last year so that's why he's been looking better but in the Classic, he's going to face better horses than he's ever faced and will get his head handed to him yet again. He looks good against bad horses, bad against good ones. I would be shocked if he finishes in the top half of the field. I think Bernadini, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, Brother Derek, Premium Tap, Invasor, and Perfect Drift will all finish ahead of him.

slotdirt · #7 10-24-2006, 01:47 PM

I missed that point on Sun King's breeding. His sire, obviously, was pretty good at 10f, and Summer Squall was no slouch at either 10f or the mile and three sixteenths distance. To say Sun King wasn't bred to go long is downright preposterous.

Scav · #8 10-24-2006, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I missed that point on Sun King's breeding. His sire, obviously, was pretty good at 10f, and Summer Squall was no slouch at either 10f or the mile and three sixteenths distance. To say Sun King wasn't bred to go long is downright preposterous.

Supposedly horses get stamina from their mare side, which I have never really understood how the mare can throw stamina, but I am guessing this is why he is saying this, as if i recall, Clever Trick is there somewhere

blackthroatedwind · #9 10-24-2006, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm saying that the horses he's been facing thus far this year are inferior to what he was facing last year so that's why he's been looking better but in the Classic, he's going to face better horses than he's ever faced and will get his head handed to him yet again. He looks good against bad horses, bad against good ones. I would be shocked if he finishes in the top half of the field. I think Bernadini, Lava Man, George Washington, David Junior, Brother Derek, Premium Tap, Invasor, and Perfect Drift will all finish ahead of him.

Huh? He lost the Whitney by a head to Invasor who is clearly better than virtually every horse he faced last year.

I'm not singing his praises for this race, though I think he has a reasonable chance to get a piece, but you are not making logical sense ( again ).

King Glorious · #10 10-24-2006, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Huh? He lost the Whitney by a head to Invasor who is clearly better than virtually every horse he faced last year.

I'm not singing his praises for this race, though I think he has a reasonable chance to get a piece, but you are not making logical sense ( again ).

U think Invasor is clearly better than every horse he faced last year. I don't. Invasor has won some nice races this year but he's beaten absolutely nothing at all. I think he's beaten even less than Bernardini and Discreet Cat have. It's going to take more than beating Wanderin Boy and We Can Seek and Andromeda's Hero for me to get on the Invasor wagon. I was trying my best to give him his due but then when he went out and barely could hold off Sun King, the only decent horse he's faced this year, I knew Invasor was a fraud. U say Sun King's got a reasonable chance to get a piece because of how well he ran against Invasor? I say neither one of them gets within sniffing distance of the first four at the wire.

slotdirt · #11 10-24-2006, 01:38 PM

Volponi, Alphabet Soup, and Concern all were not GI winners prior to the Breeders Cup. Black Tie Affair's only GI win coming into the Classic was the Iselin at 9 furlongs.

So basically in Breeders Cup Classic history, a first time grade I winner takes the race around 14 percent of the time.

JJP · #12 10-24-2006, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Volponi, Alphabet Soup, and Concern all were not GI winners prior to the Breeders Cup. Black Tie Affair's only GI win coming into the Classic was the Iselin at 9 furlongs.

So basically in Breeders Cup Classic history, a first time grade I winner takes the race around 14 percent of the time.

I don't think Wild Again was a Grade 1 winner before the BCC either. I'm not sure but Skywalker and Arcangues might not have been G1 winners going into the race, either.

slotdirt · #13 10-24-2006, 02:49 PM

Skywalker won the Santa Anita Derby; Wild Again won the Meadowlands Handicap which was apparently a GI race at the time. I think Arcangues won some sort of race on the turf that was GI in France somewhere.

#14 10-24-2006, 08:20 PM

My post was not "bashing" Sun King as some ensued, but merely a simple and preliminary analysis of his chances to win to win the classic. He is a wonderful racehorse by any measure. Is he hopeless a week from Saturday? Not at all, but I am certain, that my initial post took some air out of some posters who were going to "key" him.

After all, he is not particularly bred for the trip, and has failed miserably at ten furlongs, in each of his five attempts. Add that to the fact that he will carry the package (126), and will face what is easily the best field of his career.

True the pace strongly figures legit, and SK runs late, but as a very, very, preliminary guesstimate, I would expect him off about 20-1 and his true chances, double that! Up until the last sentence if you were "off" him; and now your back onboard, WHY?

Euro, would think the Overbrook pedigree being; Storm Cat out of Train Robbery by Alydar would get you ten furlongs. If not put Pat Day up and send!!

Slot, 44 etc. Indeed, as horses get older they establish certain tendencies, but their pedigree does not change. BBB