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#1
10-24-2006, 09:10 AM
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Hey Oracle Troll here. Your calling another poster "extremely stupid" is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black. In just the last few weeks you have posted enough prattle to indicate your knowledge" has more than a few holes.
I know, I know, when I sell a Grade I winner.... prattle on. BBB 
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#2
10-24-2006, 09:19 AM
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The problem he has is his running style, needing the lead or a stalking position. Its going to be nearly impossible for him to work out a trip with that style that can neutralize the other speed and effectively hold off the closers. I have yet to see you post anything or pertinence or give out any winners, something many of us have done a thousand times. I look to create value in betting in many different ways. One of my favorite things to do is to take a longshot with a "hanging" running style or "grinding" style and key him or her underneath in the tri. Something I did and posted before the kentucky Derby regarding Steppenwolfer, who I keyed for 2nd and 3rd in the triple. I'm no chalk lover in the sense that you will NEVER see me make a large win bet(or small one!!) on a favorite to win. And if I key one in a pik-3, pik-4, or pik-6 I am looking to catch value in the other legs of that particular pik bet. There are many horses in the Classic who may make good keys either on top or underneath who will go off at double digit prices. But in asessing how the race will be run, I see lava man pushing or making the lead, and bernadini stalking and making a move on the backside or the turn. This is going to hurt any horse who wants the lead or needs to run close to it, because they are going to have to neutralize the speed and tactical speed of both Lava man and Bernadini. The way that I see to attack the race is to find someone with a closing kick who can suck up into what I feel will be a solid and contested pace.
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#3
10-24-2006, 09:25 AM
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__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#4
10-24-2006, 09:33 AM
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1) He will be double digit odds. 2) Has shown that he, above all other double digit odds horses that are projected, can run very fast numbers on the sheets. 3) His closing style is best aided by the projected solid and throughly contested pace that I personally expect. 4) Hes been rested and primed for this race since the Woodward. I'm not trying to invent the wheel here. hes going to be my key in the gimmicks, at what I feel should be an overlaid price. Invasor beat him a short nose in the Whitney with a less than blistering pace and he will take much more money than Sun King will, with the caveat that he missed what was supposed to be his key prep race, and will not be going into the race with a DESIGNED layoff, as Sun King will.
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#5
10-24-2006, 09:37 AM
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__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#6
10-24-2006, 09:40 AM
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#8
10-24-2006, 09:45 AM
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Slot, in the last decade for a while, "value handicapping" was the rage for a while. Guys weer told to make their own morning line, and only bet horses who were overlaid according to that line.
The problem is that what if you think a horse should be 10-1 and hes 20-1 and you don't think the horse stands a chance in the world? Do you bet him? **** that!!! I think that method is best used to PASS races. If you think you should be getting 8-1 on a horse who is 4-1, and you really think hes horse to play, just pass the race. That I am a firm believer in. By the same token if you originally think a horse like scat Daddy is the best horse in a race, and you expect him to be 3-5, and originally think you may wanna spread the race looking to beat him, and you are stunned to see him at 5-2 on the board when they are loading the gate, you make him the key. I'm sorry but betting 40-1 shots that you think should be 20-1 who you still feel have no chance, is not the way I prefer to go.
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#11
10-24-2006, 09:46 AM
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not on top...save that bet..bern /invs sk /..whoever..
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#12
10-24-2006, 09:47 AM
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You might as well take the money you're gonna wager on Premium Tap and give it to a bum on taylor boulevard and have him kick you in the nuts.
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#13
10-24-2006, 09:35 AM
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I think that the presence of some talented horses who consistently show speed or strong tactical speed and turn moves will insure a hot pace. Therefore I see an optimum chance that a closer, or closers, will make up part or all of the trifecta. The fastest of those closers on the sheets is consistently Sun King. I'm not trying to overthink the race just because its worth 4 million bucks.
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#14
10-24-2006, 10:15 AM
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I'm in total agreement that Sun King is the best choice to key for the tri.. My only concern is paying too much into the Trifecta bet v. the payout. If Bernardini and/or Invasor are in the top two slots, I don't think the price will be too high... now if Bernie or Invasor.. or both were to miss the board, that would make things real juicy! And by the way, it's a $5 million dollar race now!! 
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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