6/11 (BEL): Belmont, Manhattan, Acorn, Just a Game, Stephens, True North

[Travis Stone]

I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.

I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.

In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.

I realize Animal Kingdom is bred for the turf, but his pre-derby workout obviously showed he moves really well on the dirt.

But watching Brilliant Speed's win in the Bluegrass again, he appears to really move like a turf horse, and I just can't get myself to like him....at all.

[Travis Stone]

Does anyone think a change of tactics might happen on say a Ruler On Ice or Prime Cut, and they break looking for the lead?

I guess even if that does happen, Shackleford can rate off a target, and he probably has the same questions about distance as before...

[hockey2315]

I think people are ignoring the potential for Ruler On Ice to add to the early pace w/ the addition of blinkers and some fast recent works, and think Prime Cut might be close too.

[Travis Stone]

Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think people are ignoring the potential for Ruler On Ice to add to the early pace w/ the addition of blinkers and some fast recent works, and think Prime Cut might be close too.

Ruler On Ice, like many Kelly Breen horses, has worked fast before the addition of blinkers. He blew out :46 and change before the Sunland race and :58 and change before the Tesio and didn't approach the lead in either race. Even if he does get sent early, I still have a tough time seeing how they don't crawl down the backstretch. It just isn't a field with much pace.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

That's the price horse that I think should be on the board too.