6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Alternation any more unprepared for a race like the Belmont than Animal Kingdom was for the Derby? I understand the argument but in the current game horses are not taken along through their development incrementally, that's led to the deterioration of allowance races at many of the major circuits in the country.

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.

The Dwyer 1-2 finishers were 2nd and 1st in the Belmont last year and that was a Belmont that featured 0 horses who had run in all 3 legs of the TC. This year two of the main candidates will be making their 3rd start in 5 weeks. There's something to be said for having a fresh horse in that type of situation.

I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.

Its just tough for me to swallow connections opting against a classic race where they probably would have been the 4th choice.

In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.