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  #1  
Old 05-25-2011, 02:56 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.
She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:08 PM
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ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?
My guess is closer to 90 today, and based on the field she beat in her maiden race, that 75 even looked a little generous. The bottom line is like I said, if it wasn't a McLaughlin horse, she would've been 10-1 or higher and most likely run like it.

To play this horse, you had to (a). completely disregard the poor field behind her in her maiden race, (b). assume she'd improve 10-15 points off an 8-month layoff and (c). assume this wasn't a tightener for something longer, considering she had last run at a mile and McLaughlin's layoff numbers. For all of that, you got 3-1. Things like that just make the race unplayable.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:09 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:12 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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6: 9-4-10

7: 1-3-4
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:12 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.
Race 6 was 9-4-10. They're going in the gate for the 7th right now.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:15 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Thanks, Nick.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:16 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Thanks, Nick.
No problem. Race 7 was 1-3-4.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:18 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Wow couldn't have been further off in either of those.
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:20 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Sorry, Scav. Didn't see your post. Thanks to you too.
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Old 05-25-2011, 07:56 PM
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Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.
It seems like results come in a half hour late somedays. I usually end up having to call my phonebet acct and find out that way.
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Old 05-25-2011, 08:25 PM
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Alseera 86 Beyer
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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Old 05-26-2011, 06:10 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?
I missed this yesterday Steve.

ML makers, and surely Eric, don't " point people in the right direction " with their betting lines. They make lines based on how they think people will bet. Eric thought " people " would really go for that horse. So did I. We were wrong....though considering how impossible she was on paper, her odds were VERY low. But, she got a perfect trip versus a vulnerable favorite. She also improved from 2 to 3, which was really the only way you could play her. Her races last year were dreadful. How is the runner up from her maiden win doing? Is she still trying to break her maiden at Penn National? She was last I looked.
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