ouija board points to the classic

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

some of the horses entered vs dini are suspect also..no way id toss her out vs these for a minor award...if she takes to the dirt..no telling..thats all im saying..

This reminds me of the Jolypha situation in 1992. Andre Fabre already was sending over the Arc winner (Subotica) for the Turf and her owner Juddmonte had another one (Quest for Fame) for that race also. There was no F/M Turf at that time so they took a chance and sent the 3yo filly to the Classic for her dirt and American debut. At 15/1 and part of the mutual field, she came on at the end to finish 3rd, beaten two lengths by winner AP Indy and just 1/2 length by older male champion Pleasant Tap. I remember how many people were saying it was a stupid move to try her there for many of the same reasons I hear people saying about Ouija Board. But what came through was her class that day. I think the same thing will happen for Ouija Board should she go here. Make no mistake about it, she has the class. If surface wasn't an issue here, she'd be rated no worse than the third classiest horse in this race based on her record. There are so many that will be in here that don't come close to her on class. Even if dirt is the equalizer and drops her form some, she's still too much better than some of these horses.

They've already won and placed in the F/M Turf. What would she have to prove running there again? She's already considered one of the best two or three turf mares in the world and the only two that could possibly be considered better (Pride and Mandesha) both will be skipping the race so she'd be favored to win and prove......nothing. It's almost the same thing with the open Turf. She's already run and won in top class races against the males so just as with the F/M Turf, it's something we already know she can do. So that leaves us with the dirt option. If it were me, I might have shot for the Distaff. I think that this year's edition is extremely light and she'd have a shot. I would think that the short distance of 9f would be a concern though (I'd seriously run Wait a While or Gorella in that race) and they are shooting for the moon. As anyone that's ever read my opinions knows, I love the move. I love those that take risks that most wouldn't. It's a sporting move by a sporting man. He's put her in against the boys, he's sent her all over the world, and now he's likely ending her career with the biggest challenge of all. Could have taken the safe route and gone in the F/M Turf but is going for the whole thing. I love it. If it happens. Now I want Bernardini to romp and take his place among the greats. But I'd love to see Ouija Board run second and George Washington run third. Reward the risk takers.

[blackthroatedwind]

Stop kidding around....we know if you owned them Gorella and Ouiji Board would be in the BC Sprint.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Stop kidding around....we know if you owned them Gorella and Ouiji Board would be in the BC Sprint.

I like outside the box thinking. But at least if u are going to be outside the box, leave the door open or have a key to get back in. Running Gorella or Ouija Board in the Sprint wouldn't be a good move at all. Neither has the speed for that race. I know u are trying to be funny at my expense and that's ok. But I think that u have to admit that some of the suggestions or ideas that I have aren't THAT wild. They may go against conventional thinking but they aren't crazy. I think the most recent (Discreet Cat to the Mile, Ouija Board to the Classic, George Washington to the Classic, Gorella and Wait a While to the Distaff), the only question is the switch in surface. With the exception of Wait a While, who I think has just become a different horse, none of the others have tried the new surface so I don't think it's fair to say that they CAN'T do it. When I try and handicap, I go by what I think at the two most important factors; class and distance. If a horse fits in those two areas, I give them a shot. I worry about surface last. I think that each of the crazy suggestions, the horse fit class and distance wise in the races I would go for. It's outside but not too far.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I like outside the box thinking. But at least if u are going to be outside the box, leave the door open or have a key to get back in. Running Gorella or Ouija Board in the Sprint wouldn't be a good move at all. Neither has the speed for that race. I know u are trying to be funny at my expense and that's ok. But I think that u have to admit that some of the suggestions or ideas that I have aren't THAT wild. They may go against conventional thinking but they aren't crazy. I think the most recent (Discreet Cat to the Mile, Ouija Board to the Classic, George Washington to the Classic, Gorella and Wait a While to the Distaff), the only question is the switch in surface. With the exception of Wait a While, who I think has just become a different horse, none of the others have tried the new surface so I don't think it's fair to say that they CAN'T do it. When I try and handicap, I go by what I think at the two most important factors; class and distance. If a horse fits in those two areas, I give them a shot. I worry about surface last. I think that each of the crazy suggestions, the horse fit class and distance wise in the races I would go for. It's outside but not too far.

Sorry, but I can think of little I find more relevent than surface and if you think Gorella runs in any way like a horse that would be successful on the dirt I want a big bag of what you're smoking.....because you're flat out nuts or stoned. As for Wait a While....send me a bag of that as well. Dude, she's ALREADY competed extensively on the dirt and PROVEN herself to be inferior to the competition she would be facing. To suggest that her sudden improvement when put on the turf was somehow random, and I guess just coincidental to a huge physical improvement on her part, is as unsubstantiatable as it is ludicrous. Hell, Pletcher even said well before the American Oaks he felt she was better on the turf.

Frankly, any random opinion you give that turns out to be true is WAY overshadowed by the plentitude of illogical thoughts.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sorry, but I can think of little I find more relevent than surface and if you think Gorella runs in any way like a horse that would be successful on the dirt I want a big bag of what you're smoking.....because you're flat out nuts or stoned. As for Wait a While....send me a bag of that as well. Dude, she's ALREADY competed extensively on the dirt and PROVEN herself to be inferior to the competition she would be facing. To suggest that her sudden improvement when put on the turf was somehow random, and I guess just coincidental to a huge physical improvement on her part, is as unsubstantiatable as it is ludicrous. Hell, Pletcher even said well before the American Oaks he felt she was better on the turf.

Frankly, any random opinion you give that turns out to be true is WAY overshadowed by the plentitude of illogical thoughts.

I never knew that opinions had to be substantiated by facts. I also know that there are more ways than one to skin a cat. U think surface is more important than I do, I think other things are. How do we know which method is better? Is one better than the other? I see Gorella as a horse that moves like a horse. I would not count her out of doing something she's never tried until she shows me that she can't. As for Wait a While, hey, sometimes horses do improve drastically. If Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, and Paseana were pointing for the Distaff, I wouldn't go there. But this year's group doesn't scare me at all and she's going in such great form right now that it could be worth taking a shot. Lava Man used to lose races at Fairplex. Couldn't win on the dirt or the grass. But now look at him. Once he got good, he was able to win grade one races on both surfaces. Do u think that as good as Cigar got when switched to the dirt, he would have reverted back to average at best if they had put him back on the grass? I don't. Maybe a proverbial "light" went off in her head and she'd be better now on dirt than she was before. Who knows? I don't know for sure either way just as I'm sure u don't either.

In any way, I don't think any of my opinions turn out to be true or false. If I suggest something (GW in the Classic for instance) and they decide to try it, that doesn't make my opinion true. Either way, it was still just an opinion of what I think. Never once do I state them to be facts so I don't look for them to be right or wrong.

I have done a little research on this and talked to some of my contacts in the know at Churchill Downs and nobody has heard of this yet. This is likely a rumor.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I never knew that opinions had to be substantiated by facts. I also know that there are more ways than one to skin a cat. U think surface is more important than I do, I think other things are. How do we know which method is better? Is one better than the other? I see Gorella as a horse that moves like a horse. I would not count her out of doing something she's never tried until she shows me that she can't. As for Wait a While, hey, sometimes horses do improve drastically. If Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, and Paseana were pointing for the Distaff, I wouldn't go there. But this year's group doesn't scare me at all and she's going in such great form right now that it could be worth taking a shot. Lava Man used to lose races at Fairplex. Couldn't win on the dirt or the grass. But now look at him. Once he got good, he was able to win grade one races on both surfaces. Do u think that as good as Cigar got when switched to the dirt, he would have reverted back to average at best if they had put him back on the grass? I don't. Maybe a proverbial "light" went off in her head and she'd be better now on dirt than she was before. Who knows? I don't know for sure either way just as I'm sure u don't either.

In any way, I don't think any of my opinions turn out to be true or false. If I suggest something (GW in the Classic for instance) and they decide to try it, that doesn't make my opinion true. Either way, it was still just an opinion of what I think. Never once do I state them to be facts so I don't look for them to be right or wrong.

In racing, opinions do get either substantiated or invalidated by fact, and it is the ones with good opinions that will prevail over those with bad ones.

I would say that I basically disagree with everything in your post and I would also say that history backs me up. Yes, I think Cigar improved because he went to the dirt. Yes, I think Wait a While improved because she was shifted to the turf. I believe that neither would ( or would have ) transfered their surface improvement if switched back to the other surface.

I do not mean this question to be condescending, and admire your enthusiasm for the game, but I am curious...do you bet? And if the answer is yes....do you bet enough money so that losing can be at least a little painful? Once again, it is NO measure of a person whether or not they bet, or how much if they do, but somehow it feels like these opinions of yours have never felt the pain they would receive at the windows.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In racing, opinions do get either substantiated or invalidated by fact, and it is the ones with good opinions that will prevail over those with bad ones.

I would say that I basically disagree with everything in your post and I would also say that history backs me up. Yes, I think Cigar improved because he went to the dirt. Yes, I think Wait a While improved because she was shifted to the turf. I believe that neither would ( or would have ) transfered their surface improvement if switched back to the other surface.

I do not mean this question to be condescending, and admire your enthusiasm for the game, but I am curious...do you bet? And if the answer is yes....do you bet enough money so that losing can be at least a little painful? Once again, it is NO measure of a person whether or not they bet, or how much if they do, but somehow it feels like these opinions of yours have never felt the pain they would receive at the windows.

I don't bet nearly as much as I used to because it did get too painful. There were plenty of good wins. Plenty of tough losses. When I do bet, I try to bet on the horse I think is the best horse period and will appreciate the distance of the race. So yes, I do back my wild opinions with my money.

I think it's interesting that u say opinions get substantiated or invalidated by facts. I suppose u would say that if they ran Ouija Board in the Classic and she lost by 10, it would support your opinion. U could say "see, I knew she couldn't do anything in this spot" and feel validated. I, however, don't see it that way. Because she might lose there doesn't mean that she would have won in the other spot. And a loss still doesn't take away from the impetus behind the decision in the first place, which was to take on a new challenge. I still admire that. I don't think that u go into new challenges feeling like u have to win in order for it to be a successful decision. I come from a basketball background and many times I've taken a big shot and missed. But I was wide open and the opportunity presented itself so I had to take it. I said in previous thread about Lava Man that I think u have to dare to be great even when it's easy to settle for being good. A horse like Ouija Board, her position is set at this moment. It won't rise with a win in the F/M Turf and it won't suffer with a loss in the Classic. But with a win or top showing in the Classic, her place in history, whatever that is, will be elevated. And even if she were to win the Classic, I still don't feel like my opinion would be validated because I'm not looking at the result for validation. My opinion is only in regards to the decision making that put u in the position in the first place. To each his own though.