Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[dalakhani]

Thanks Nick. Okay last stab. I watched the replay of the Arkansas derby and in hindsight, Dance City ran quite a race. He is bothered in the stretch and of all of the early speed, he is the only one that was there in the end.

Ramon gets the call for the Preakness and with any sort of improvement this horse has a real shot. I know the pedigree is a little bit speedy on top (city zip) but the female side might just carry him far enough.

Crazy?

[pweizer]

Dance City has the best chance of the new shooters. I really want to bet against Animal Kingdom but am having a hard time finding any legitimate reason to do so.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thanks Nick. Okay last stab. I watched the replay of the Arkansas derby and in hindsight, Dance City ran quite a race. He is bothered in the stretch and of all of the early speed, he is the only one that was there in the end.

Ramon gets the call for the Preakness and with any sort of improvement this horse has a real shot. I know the pedigree is a little bit speedy on top (city zip) but the female side might just carry him far enough.

Crazy?

I think anyone who's not giving Dance City a big chance is overlooking how strong a race he ran in the Ark Derby. He ran extremely well and if you haven't watched the race in a while it almost becomes mind boggling that he was beaten only just over a length.

His damside is typical of a Ned Evans homebred. His dam was a 3x route winner and has already produced 3 other route winners. City Zip, of course, is a half to Ghostzapper and has produced numerous route stakes winners on turf and dirt. If Dance City gets tired late it will be because he had to chase very fast fractions, not because of his pedigree IMO.

I like Dance City.

[intense]

Am I crazy thinking Shackleford can hold on this time w/the shorter distance? he held strong with all of them rolling in at the end on Derby day.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by intense

Am I crazy thinking Shackleford can hold on this time w/the shorter distance? he held strong with all of them rolling in at the end on Derby day.

I think he's a bad bet on Saturday. He's a game little horse and having bet him in the Derby, he gave me a lot of juice, but the bottom line is he couldn't have had an easier trip in the Derby and he still had no answer for Animal Kingdom or Nehro in the last furlong. He's going to have to (a.) hope those two don't show up (literally in Nehro's case) and (b.) almost certainly deal with considerably more pace pressure than he saw in Louisville. Add to that the fact that you could have had him at 60-1 in the FL Derby and 23-1 last Saturday, while he'll be less than 10-1 in the Preakness, and he'll have to beat me.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I
His damside is typical of a Ned Evans homebred. His dam was a 3x route winner and has already produced 3 other route winners. City Zip, of course, is a half to Ghostzapper and has produced numerous route stakes winners on turf and dirt. If Dance City gets tired late it will be because he had to chase very fast fractions, not because of his pedigree IMO.

I want Dance City to be an also-ran/bridesmaid in the Preakness, Dwyer, and Jim Dandy so I can get a decent price when he makes his turf debut in the National Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga.