Dead Rail

philcski · #1 05-09-2011, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem with this thinking is that most horses are apprehensive about rallying inside in the stretch, despite what a former poster here thinks, and will hesitate inside, but rally strongly once taking outside their rival(s) as St. John's River did. Take a look at the stretch of Saturday's Ft. Marcy at Belmont, for a good example of this, and one on turf so as to take away any possible dirt bias misunderstanding.

I'm not saying the rail was necessarily the best place to be Friday or Saturday, but with racing generally having an outside flow if the racetrack is even, and the races are run fairly, tracks can often appear to have an anti-rail bias when, in fact, one doesn't exist at all.

I agree with this, if anything the track was very tiring and not kind to speed... which means the firster that won the maiden race for Baffert might actually be as good as advertised on the toteboard, and also Shackleford should be upgraded going forward.

For what it's worth I bet St. John's River and thought Rosie gave her a great ride, especially considering the horse took a right turn out of the gate and spotted the field a couple lengths. Whether or not riding the potentially dead rail till midstretch cost her a victory is certainly questionable but I'd say it didn't.

freddymo · #2 05-09-2011, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with this, if anything the track was very tiring and not kind to speed... which means the firster that won the maiden race for Baffert might actually be as good as advertised on the toteboard, and also Shackleford should be upgraded going forward.

For what it's worth I bet St. John's River and thought Rosie gave her a great ride, especially considering the horse took a right turn out of the gate and spotted the field a couple lengths. Whether or not riding the potentially dead rail till midstretch cost her a victory is certainly questionable but I'd say it didn't.

You should call Bobby Flay and Emeril

Travis Stone · #3 05-09-2011, 07:39 PM

A dead rail is really hard to determine. It felt like outside sweeping moves were doing well, but that's how races tend to shake-out like others said.

Cannon Shell · #4 05-09-2011, 07:45 PM

If you want to see a dead rail watch most days at Parx.

philcski · #5 05-09-2011, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

You should call Bobby Flay and Emeril

Honest truth? He's a d!ck.

VOL JACK · #6 05-09-2011, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Honest truth? He's a d!ck.

Most Gazillionaires are.

somerfrost · #7 05-10-2011, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with this, if anything the track was very tiring and not kind to speed... which means the firster that won the maiden race for Baffert might actually be as good as advertised on the toteboard, and also Shackleford should be upgraded going forward.

For what it's worth I bet St. John's River and thought Rosie gave her a great ride, especially considering the horse took a right turn out of the gate and spotted the field a couple lengths. Whether or not riding the potentially dead rail till midstretch cost her a victory is certainly questionable but I'd say it didn't.

I agree 100% about Rosie's ride, in pre-race interview she said her instructions were to get to the rail as quick as possible and go from there...she looked like Borel the way she road the rail then split horses and came late, very unlucky not to win the Oaks. In the same interview Friday and one Saturday, she said her instructions on Pants on Fire was to get good position and stay 4-5 back, exactly what she did. Unfortunately, she had no horse in the stretch. I'm really high on her, at 23 she's really coming into her own (first female jock to win riding title at Fair Grounds this year), and I've yet to see her give a poor ride.

randallscott35 · #8 05-10-2011, 10:47 AM

She's easily the best girl jock since Krone.

blackthroatedwind · #9 05-10-2011, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

very unlucky not to win the Oaks.

How's that?

NTamm1215 · #10 05-10-2011, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How's that?

I would have made a small fortune had St. John's River won the Oaks. There was nothing unlucky about her loss except for where the finish line is located.

blackthroatedwind · #11 05-10-2011, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I would have made a small fortune had St. John's River won the Oaks. There was nothing unlucky about her loss except for where the finish line is located.

That makes two of us.

The winner was best....and even a great ride by Rosie could not overcome that.

Rootdog1 · #12 05-10-2011, 03:07 PM

Makes 3 of us...I wanted the wire moved back 10 feet.

The Thoro guys are claiming dead rail for Sat....in case anyone cares.

somerfrost · #13 05-10-2011, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How's that?

Well, I guess it's how one defines luck. She did exactly what she said her instructions were, she made several split second decisions while weaving through traffic and rode her horse aggressively to the wire coming up just short, she rode well enough to win the race (and her horse ran well enough to win)...the bottom line of course is that they just missed...but that doesn't detract from the ride or the horse's effort, whether you call that unlucky or just horse racing is a matter of semantics imo.

blackthroatedwind · #14 05-10-2011, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Well, I guess it's how one defines luck. She did exactly what she said her instructions were, she made several split second decisions while weaving through traffic and rode her horse aggressively to the wire coming up just short, she rode well enough to win the race (and her horse ran well enough to win)...the bottom line of course is that they just missed...but that doesn't detract from the ride or the horse's effort, whether you call that unlucky or just horse racing is a matter of semantics imo.

You actually just explained why she was lucky....but you seem to think the line is blurred between good and bad luck.

Most would disagree.

somerfrost · #15 05-10-2011, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You actually just explained why she was lucky....but you seem to think the line is blurred between good and bad luck.

Most would disagree.

Fine, if you feel the necessity to argue something like that then knock yourself out.

blackthroatedwind · #16 05-10-2011, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Fine, if you feel the necessity to argue something like that then knock yourself out.

I wasn't arguing. I was pointing something out.

RolloTomasi · #17 05-10-2011, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I'm really high on her, at 23 she's really coming into her own (first female jock to win riding title at Fair Grounds this year), and I've yet to see her give a poor ride.

Have you seen Bind's last two starts?

somerfrost · #18 05-10-2011, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Have you seen Bind's last two starts?

Nope!