Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

NTamm1215 · #1 05-08-2011, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Guesses on Animal Kingdom's odds? 8/5? 2-1?

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

freddymo · #2 05-08-2011, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - War Emblem 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..

ateamstupid · #3 05-08-2011, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..

I don't understand this. He was clearly the best horse yesterday. The only horse who ran comparably was Nehro. Unless you think one of the new shooters is something serious, I don't get how you can be strongly against AK.

freddymo · #4 05-08-2011, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't understand this. He was clearly the best horse yesterday. The only horse who ran comparably was Nehro. Unless you think one of the new shooters is something serious, I don't get how you can be strongly against AK.

Please the horse had a perfect trip into a decent pace and is hardily a star. His own trainer wouldnt have pick him vs. Tobys Corner. He ran well..He has done enough, his 15 minutes of fame are over!

ateamstupid · #5 05-08-2011, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

Please the horse had a perfect trip into a decent pace and is hardily a star. His own trainer wouldnt have pick him vs. Tobys Corner. He ran well..He has done enough, his 15 minutes of fame are over!

This just sounds like bitterness. The pace wasn't decent, it was quite slow, plenty of other horses had similar or better trips and didn't explode in the stretch like AK did. Johnny barely even had to do any work on him. How do you know if he's 'hardly a star'? This was his first race on dirt, so no one knows how good he'll be yet. To me, this has the potential to be another example of synthetic surfaces making a very good horse look very mediocre.

NTamm1215 · #6 05-08-2011, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..

You better buy your topping of choice. It could get dry without it.

slotdirt · #7 05-08-2011, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - Medaglia d'Oro 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

Think this was meant to be War Emblem.

NTamm1215 · #8 05-08-2011, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Think this was meant to be War Emblem.

LOL, yes it was. I noticed in looking at the chart who it was that got a lot of money in the Preakness keeping War Emblem's odds relatively high.

slotdirt · #9 05-08-2011, 04:09 PM

All that cash on Medaglia and freaking Magic Weisner clunked up for the place.

asudevil · #10 05-08-2011, 04:18 PM

Sounds like MMM, Shack, and Dialed In are joining AK in the Preakness.

justindew · #11 05-08-2011, 04:49 PM