CONTEST: The 'Top 5' Thread -- Trifecta Box

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Now I'm myopic?

Better that than clueless.

Ok, let me spell this out to you Nick.

As you incessantly like to remind us, this field is atrocious.

Even more atrocious, according to you, than the field Big Brown wasn't challenged by.

Like Big Brown, Uncle Mo has shown ability far beyond anyone else in the field.

Like Big Brown, Mo is lightly raced, especially this year.

I'm pretty sure I recall some talk about soundness with Big Brown, pre Derby. Just like with Uncle Mo.

Like Big Brown, there is talk about Uncle Mo's distance challenged pedigree.

The only real difference between them is that Big Brown won an atrocious Fla Derby in his last prep, while Uncle Mo ran a crappy third in the Wood. To me, this is almost a complete non factor for the myopic reasons I've posted previously.
But yeah, there are no similarities at all.

This is a VERY casual approach to their respective final preps. The field for the Florida Derby in 2008 was hardly accomplished but it was stronger than this year's Wood field. That, coupled with the fact that Big Brown ran a huge race that day to win from the 12 hole, set a very solid pace and keep on going, leads to the conclusion that the only similarity between Big Brown's Fla Derby and Uncle Mo's Wood is that they were both run at 1 1/8 miles.

I have never wavered from the opinion that the 2010 Uncle Mo will rip this field to shreds. However, we differ opinion-wise because I think the 2010 Uncle Mo is a thing of the past. You have few viable excuses for his Wood defeat other than "he didn't look comfortable" and apparently still believe his Timely Writer win was impressive despite walking through the opening half-mile and beating two horses who were pummeled in graded stakes in their next start.

Really, Uncle Mo at this point and Big Brown 3 years ago couldn't have been more different. One was just developing into something special while the other is trying to find what made him special. I honestly hope we see the same Uncle Mo on Saturday that we did in November at CD. If it means I don't cash any tickets I'll be happy because racing will have a star to follow and a big-mouth owner to grab headlines.

[slotdirt]

As much as I hated Big Brown, he'd dust this field by a dozen lengths. And I don't think that's an exaggeration.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

This is a VERY casual approach to their respective final preps. The field for the Florida Derby in 2008 was hardly accomplished but it was stronger than this year's Wood field. That, coupled with the fact that Big Brown ran a huge race that day to win from the 12 hole, set a very solid pace and keep on going, leads to the conclusion that the only similarity between Big Brown's Fla Derby and Uncle Mo's Wood is that they were both run at 1 1/8 miles.

I have never wavered from the opinion that the 2010 Uncle Mo will rip this field to shreds. However, we differ opinion-wise because I think the 2010 Uncle Mo is a thing of the past. You have few viable excuses for his Wood defeat other than "he didn't look comfortable" and apparently still believe his Timely Writer win was impressive despite walking through the opening half-mile and beating two horses who were pummeled in graded stakes in their next start.

Really, Uncle Mo at this point and Big Brown 3 years ago couldn't have been more different. One was just developing into something special while the other is trying to find what made him special. I honestly hope we see the same Uncle Mo on Saturday that we did in November at CD. If it means I don't cash any tickets I'll be happy because racing will have a star to follow and a big-mouth owner to grab headlines.

Uncle Mo could have won the Timely Writer by as much as the jockey wanted. My guess is that it was meant to be a workout, which it was, with the expectation of things going well in the Wood, which would be more of a tightener than the Timely Writer.

The Wood, something was definitely wrong in my near sighted eyes. My first inclination was that he hated the track, but who knows, maybe he really was sick.

I hate that they were total sissies with him this year, but it is what it is, and I haven't seen anything to definitively say he has regressed from last year.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Uncle Mo could have won the Timely Writer by as much as the jockey wanted. My guess is that it was meant to be a workout, which it was, with the expectation of things going well in the Wood, which would be more of a tightener than the Timely Writer.

The Wood, something was definitely wrong in my near sighted eyes. My first inclination was that he hated the track, but who knows, maybe he really was sick.

I hate that they were total sissies with him this year, but it is what it is, and I haven't seen anything to definitively say he has regressed from last year.

The colt never made it back to his 2 year old form. Once Pletcher's go backward they never return to form..The juice is a one way street.Shame I wanted hi to be special also

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The colt never made it back to his 2 year old form. Once Pletcher's go backward they never return to form..The juice is a one way street.Shame I wanted hi to be special also

This is a good point.

However, I'm still not sold that the Wood was a regression, based on what I saw.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I hate that they were total sissies with him this year, but it is what it is, and I haven't seen anything to definitively say he has regressed from last year.

I'm not really sure how you could say that. He hasn't come close to running like he did last year, in either race this year.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm not really sure how you could say that. He hasn't come close to running like he did last year, in either race this year.

Yes, this is true, but likewise, circumstances dictated that he wasn't given the chance.

His first start back was a complete joke of a race, yet he still did manage to run a pretty dynamic last portion of the race, which tells me he probably had not regressed.

The Wood, that's a toss.

[Dahoss]

I would hope he would be able to run quick late after running so slow early.

He just screams out underlay and with the whispers of his issues, I just don't see how he's a good choice to play in the race.

Are you going to actually bet him?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I would hope he would be able to run quick late after running so slow early.

He just screams out underlay and with the whispers of his issues, I just don't see how he's a good choice to play in the race.

Are you going to actually bet him?

He ran quick all right. Real quick. Real easy. He looked like the same horse to me, just with different race circumstances.

I think I'd play him at 9/2. Exotics look totally random to me.

[somerfrost]

Right now, I'm leaning towards using just three horses: Pants on Fire, Master of Hounds, and Shackleford...based largely on odds vs post draws, but I have yet to really study past performances.