Derby and Performance Figures

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Thunder Blitz's prep was open lengths faster than Point Given's Santa Anita Derby romp - or Millenium Wind's tour de force on that crazy old KEE dirt track?

That pretty much only shows a glaring flaw with his variant as I understand it. Thunder Blitz was coming from Hialeah - had he ran his final prep at Thistle Downs his figure would have been huge because of the straight class par model.

Again, quoting Dr Roman:
"The two approaches differ mainly in that BSFs are based only on the final time of a race while PFs are based on an integration of final time and fractional time. In other words, PFs incorporate a significant pace factor while BSFs do not. The general methodologies are similar to the extent that both use variants from an expected level of performance to fine tune the raw numbers. These variants from the norm may be derived by comparison with par values for the class of race or, in the case of BSFs, projecting an expected figure based on the past history of an individual horse."