Current Derby Odds from Betfair (Top 8 Choices)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I thought you are suppose to look at the "back" part, not the Lay?

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

No...

You should look at the "mid" price. If there's relatively equal money on both sides of the market, like in the case of Nehro, the trading price will end up very close to the middle of the tightest bid/offer (in this case 12.5/19, so 16.) In the situation where there's a lot of money on the offer ("back") side, like in the case of Dialed In ($817 at 4.2 to back versus only $14 at 5.8 to lay and $14 at 6.0 to lay) it's a certainty that the price will trend higher- here, very very likely to be at 5.8+; the reverse is true if there's a lot of money on the bid ("lay") side.

In this specific market, the "back" side is simply where the market makers are seeding the market. It is far lower than what really will trade.

Exactly. Which is why 13/1 on Dance City isn't realistic. Regardless, if you want a bet ON Dance City to be accepted now, you will only get 13/1.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Exactly. Which is why 13/1 on Dance City isn't realistic. Regardless, if you want a bet ON Dance City to be accepted now, you will only get 13/1.

Correct, which is why I didn't agree with your initial list. It paints an incorrect picture- one with a roughly 40-50% takeout. The Betfair #'s can be VERY helpful though and definitely worth looking at.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

Correct, which is why I didn't agree with your initial list. It paints an incorrect picture- one with a roughly 40-50% takeout. The Betfair #'s can be VERY helpful though and definitely worth looking at.

It wasn't my initial list, and there was nothing to agree/disagree with. Those were the odds being offered at that moment. That is a fact.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

It wasn't my initial list, and there was nothing to agree/disagree with. Those were the odds being offered at that moment. That is a fact.

So you weren't the original poster on this thread?

Let's put it this another way...
if you went to your broker in the middle of the night and asked him for a quote on a stock that doesn't trade frequently anyways, and he said $1 bid/$40 offer, what is the current price of the stock?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

So you weren't the original poster on this thread?

Let's put it this another way...
if you went to your broker in the middle of the night and asked him for a quote on a stock that doesn't trade frequently anyways, and he said $1 bid/$40 offer, what is the current price of the stock?

$40?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Scav

$40?

I would have said $20

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

$40?

The answer is you don't know. Somewhere between $1 and $40. In the case of thin markets, you can make educated guesses based on the weights of money on each side if you have "outside" prices (which are available on Betfair.)