Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

You're probably right. I can't say I disagree - but if any of those go with The Factor - they will be baked.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

Here are the past KY Derby leaders after 8fs - and the figure they needed to run to find themselves there (translated through Moss Pace figures) ....

2010: Noble's Promise (109 Beyer)
2009: Join In The Dance (98 Beyer)
2008: Big Brown (104 Beyer)
2007: Hard Spun (104 Beyer)
2006: Barbaro (98 Beyer)
2005: High Fly (109 Beyer)
2004: Lion Heart (112 Beyer)
2003: Peace Rules (106 Beyer)
2002: War Emblem (101 Beyer)
2001: Congaree (112 Beyer)
2000: Captain Steve (104 Beyer)
1999: Cat Thief (104 Beyer)
1998: Real Quiet (117 Beyer)
1997: Free House (106 Beyer)
1996: Unbridled's Song (115 Beyer)
1995: Serena's Song (106 Beyer)


Only 3 times out of 16 years (18.75%) did a horse manage to lead the Derby after a mile while running a figure of 101 or less to that point ....

In order for a horse like The Factor or Soldat to win the Derby - they need two things to happen imo.

* They need to first be loose on an unpressured lead through the opening half mile

* They need to get to the quarter pole running a figure no faster than a 101 or less

Considering the chances of the latter is about 18% ... if they have a 50% chance of pulling off the former ... it gives them about a 9% chance of winning IMO.

Obviously Soldat will have a harder time getting loose on an uncontested lead than The Factor would - for the simple fact that he doesn't have nearly as much early zip.