11/4 - My Budget - Your Suggestions

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bring more money. Just in case. The best day of racing each year deserves a minimum of a grand to play. Bet between 100-150 each of the first 4 races. Scale back if you hit nothing. Press if you do....There is no second place on Breeders Cup day. You go for it.

What? Why not bring a minimum of $10k on a day like this?

1. Take what you can afford to lose.
2. Bet to win. Or modest p-3's. Or Exacta boxes keying your horse.
3. Don't bet to place or show. Ever.
4. Make sure that you bet the horses you really like to win. You can go 3x3x3 all day long playing p-3s on your dudget, But just make sure that you have the $$ to bet $20 or $30 to win on the two or three horses you like the best on the card.
5. It's a great day of racing, but that doesn't mean you are compelled to play every race.
6. Conversely, don't be scared to toss a few $$ at two or three 20-1+
shots in a few races.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Don't bet to place or show. Ever.

this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

what if perfect drift is in the race? don't you think a $10 place and a $10 show bet is appropriate?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by avance2000

this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

what if perfect drift is in the race? don't you think a $10 place and a $10 show bet is appropriate?

the only time I ever think of betting to place or show is when there is a huge minus pool chalk I think can run out. That's it. But even in these situations, I'd rather play an single race exotic, especially a tri or super, which I only play when I think a bad chalk will run out. If like a horse at odds and don't care for the chalk, I will use my choice second in exactas and tris. I've tracked all my wagers for years and betting to place/show just does not pay due to breakage and takeout. And I'd rather take my chances putting those place or show $$'s on my pick to win or waiting for another race. Just the way I see it. I see your point about Perfect Drift, but so do plenty of other bettors as well so he may well be undervalued in those pools. It's just not for me. But, good luck!!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

the only time I ever think of betting to place or show is when there is a huge minus pool chalk I think can run out. That's it. But even in these situations, I'd rather play an single race exotic, especially a tri or super, which I only play when I think a bad chalk will run out. If like a horse at odds and don't care for the chalk, I will use my choice second in exactas and tris. I've tracked all my wagers for years and betting to place/show just does not pay due to breakage and takeout. And I'd rather take my chances putting those place or show $$'s on my pick to win or waiting for another race. Just the way I see it. I see your point about Perfect Drift, but so do plenty of other bettors as well so he may well be undervalued in those pools. It's just not for me. But, good luck!!

on BC day, there is almost no such thing as bring "undervalued" in a place or show pool unless it's the favorite you're betting on. hell, gorella paid $6.00 to show last year and that was a gimme.

this is the one day all year where i very strongly advocate place and show wagering, especially if you're on a budget. it's the easiest way to make money on BC day, you're not going to make a huge score, but if you're in tune with even half of the day, you'll come out ahead.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

on BC day, there is almost no such thing as bring "undervalued" in a place or show pool unless it's the favorite you're betting on. hell, gorella paid $6.00 to show last year and that was a gimme.

this is the one day all year where i very strongly advocate place and show wagering, especially if you're on a budget. it's the easiest way to make money on BC day, you're not going to make a huge score, but if you're in tune with even half of the day, you'll come out ahead.

Brian,
To me, there's no gimmes. Just not my style to bet p/s. But, good luck.
Pizza Bob's still there in Ann Arbor (State Street next to Campus Corners Liquor Store)?

Please let me know who this year's $6.00 to show gimme is!

good luck!

[ateamstupid]

I disagree with Randall, not about the money thing, but about going heavy in the first four races.

I think the first few races of the day are where you have to just dabble and experiment, and get a feel for what kind of day it's going to be, and how the track is playing. For instance, if you can't understand how the horses who won the first few races were even allowed to enter, you probably should scale back and take it easy until things start making sense again.

Here's what I did in '04 with ABOUT your budget..

Early pick four ($30).. Got 3/4.. Don't get me started.. ****ing Speightstown.
Win bet ($20).. On Singletary.. Got lucky here and had a little more to play with.
Cheap pick six ticket ($40).. Ended up getting 3/6 which is better than some people with much larger tickets did.
Late pick four ($40).. Busted when Wilko won.
Late double ($160).. Straight.. Kitten's Joy and Ghostzapper.. Still can't believe KJ lost.

As you can see, I didn't make many bets, but rather focused on the horses I really liked and the exotics I had a strong feeling about.

I'd say this would be the best approach to make $, but at the same time, it requires a lot of patience.

Whatever you decide to do, HAVE FUN!

[randallscott35]

Ateam,
To me that's not going heavy at all. You are simply using your money in a way where you have a chance to make a score early. If you have no good feeling on a race, then obviously you should play it for less, but I think people make mistakes by simply going easy early and big late. Sometimes the bombs come in early, and if you are playing conservatively you miss the payday.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Brian,
To me, there's no gimmes. Just not my style to bet p/s. But, good luck.
Pizza Bob's still there in Ann Arbor (State Street next to Campus Corners Liquor Store)?

Please let me know who this year's $6.00 to show gimme is!

good luck!

not sure about pizza bob's -- i know where campus liquors is, but i don't drive past there often as work is down the highway, and i can get downtown from my apartment without going down state street.

is it somewhere that i need to be looking into going?

as for the $6.00 show horse this year -- in all honesty, the way it's shaping up, it could be happy ticket. i'm trying to figure out what her odds will be, but with fleet indian and baletto taking most of the action, and her recent unwillingness to win a race -- she could easily sneak by in the show pool with very little action, and obviously rates a huge chance.

if all else fails, vacare if they send her

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

not sure about pizza bob's -- i know where campus liquors is, but i don't drive past there often as work is down the highway, and i can get downtown from my apartment without going down state street.

is it somewhere that i need to be looking into going?

as for the $6.00 show horse this year -- in all honesty, the way it's shaping up, it could be happy ticket. i'm trying to figure out what her odds will be, but with fleet indian and baletto taking most of the action, and her recent unwillingness to win a race -- she could easily sneak by in the show pool with very little action, and obviously rates a huge chance.

if all else fails, vacare if they send her

Thanks for the nudge on Happy Ticket.

Yes to the Pizza Bob's question if you care for a decent hot sub. Try The Favorite or the Chipata. State Street just off PAckard.

[Slewbopper]

[quote=avance2000]this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

QUOTE]

In that situation I would not bet place. I would bet all exactas with him Maybe box him with 5 others. 10 - $1 bets.

In contentious 12 to 14 horse races (3/1 or better fave), I really think the way to go is boxing 5 horses in the exacta. 20 bets. To break even the payoff has to be $40 ($2). You will see very few exactas under $100 in fields like this.

In races where I really like a horse, I will key them on top in a 5 horse tri box. At Lone Star, I had Ouija (9/10) keyed with 7 boxed behind her in the tri. Cost $42. I left Wonder Again off my ticket because she had the outside post in a field of 12. Could have bumped my ticket to $56, but I was too cheap. Somebody had to go. $2 tri was about 380.

Oh, the heartbreak of almost winning.