3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

Sightseek · #1 04-12-2011, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Then this year's Wood completely falls on its face. Between the 1-2-3 finishers in the 2008 Wood you had the defending 2YO champion who had 2 GI wins (very comparable to Uncle Mo). You had 2 GII winners from their 2YO season, (Tale of Ekati/Court Vision, who no one in this year's field compares to). You had a listed stakes winner in Giant Moon (Toby's Corner compares favorably). Anak Nakal was up the track and he was a GII winner from the prior year and Texas Wildcatter was coming off a narrow miss in the Gotham.

I forgot such Titans of the Turf like Anak Nakal won a Graded Stakes. His 3 year old form going into the race still wasn't any better than Arthur's Tale. Tale of Ekati was much more accomplished than Toby, but his 3 year old form going into the race also was roughly even, Toby winning the Wood with a 94 Beyer off two 82s and Ekati winning with a 93 off an 84. This field still had your listed stakes winner with Preachintothedevil!

I just don't agree with you that this year's preps have been the worst in the past 20 years like you said above.

Indian Charlie · #2 04-12-2011, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I forgot such Titans of the Turf like Anak Nakal won a Graded Stakes. His 3 year old form going into the race still wasn't any better than Arthur's Tale. Tale of Ekati was much more accomplished than Toby, but his 3 year old form going into the race also was roughly even, Toby winning the Wood with a 94 Beyer off two 82s and Ekati winning with a 93 off an 84. This field still had your listed stakes winner with Preachintothedevil!

I just don't agree with you that this year's preps taken as a whole have been the worst in the past 20 years like you said above.

I agree. If you throw out Big Brown, that crop was abysmal.

99 was just brutal.

If you don't have Afleet Alex, that crop is an all time horrible one.

Sightseek · #3 04-12-2011, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I agree. If you throw out Big Brown, that crop was abysmal.

99 was just brutal.

If you don't have Afleet Alex, that crop is an all time horrible one.

Bellamy Road could run a little.

Indian Charlie · #4 04-13-2011, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Bellamy Road could run a little.

True. I always forget about that horse. And I liked him!

Danzig · #5 04-13-2011, 07:19 AM

isn't toby's corner by bellamy road? also liked bellamy, gone too soon from the racing side of things.

ateamstupid · #6 04-13-2011, 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

isn't toby's corner by bellamy road? also liked bellamy, gone too soon from the racing side of things.

Yep. BR's Wood victory is still the most dominant performance I've ever seen live.

Travis Stone · #7 04-13-2011, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yep. BR's Wood victory is still the most dominant performance I've ever seen live.

And his Travers, though in defeat, was a pretty remarkable training job by Nick Zito... off a 3+ month layoff, Bellamy Road leads the entire race with fractions of :47 2/5, 1:10 4/5 and a mile in 1:36 1/5 before giving it up late to the in-form Flower Alley, who just won the Jim Dandy by 5 lengths with a 112. Bellamy Road earned a 106 in the Travers.

Flower Alley came back and ran poorly in the Gold Cup, but rebounded with a 111 runner-up in the Classic. Roman Ruler (3rd nearly 3 lengths farther back) came back and ran second in the Goodwood to Rock Hard Ten with a 111 Beyer as well.

Sightseek · #8 04-13-2011, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

isn't toby's corner by bellamy road? also liked bellamy, gone too soon from the racing side of things.

Too bad he didn't get that speed instead of the big jughead!

NTamm1215 · #9 04-12-2011, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I forgot such Titans of the Turf like Anak Nakal won a Graded Stakes. His 3 year old form going into the race still wasn't any better than Arthur's Tale. Tale of Ekati was much more accomplished than Toby, but his 3 year old form going into the race also was roughly even, Toby winning the Wood with a 94 Beyer off two 82s and Ekati winning with a 93 off an 84. This field still had your listed stakes winner with Preachintothedevil!

I just don't agree with you that this year's preps have been the worst in the past 20 years like you said above.

Mock Anak Nakal all you want but you're taking up the cause for a race that had horses like Arthur's Tale, Norman Asbjornson, and Duca as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices. This year's running was absolutely horrendous. It doesn't need to be looked upon as some type of legitimate horse race because Uncle Mo lost.

I also said some of the worst preps, not necessarily worst. Either way, they've been bad.

Sightseek · #10 04-13-2011, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Mock Anak Nakal all you want but you're taking up the cause for a race that had horses like Arthur's Tale, Norman Asbjornson, and Duca as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices. This year's running was absolutely horrendous. It doesn't need to be looked upon as some type of legitimate horse race because Uncle Mo lost.

I also said some of the worst preps, not necessarily worst. Either way, they've been bad.

Actually you said:

Quote:

We have just been treated to seven of the worst Derby preps in the last 20 years.

NTamm1215 · #11 04-13-2011, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Actually you said:

Right. What is different about how I referenced it after saying it? I never said the seven worst Derby preps, as you have mis-quoted. I said seven OF the worst Derby preps.

slotdirt · #12 04-13-2011, 10:22 AM

Flower Alley wasn't awful that year. Roman Ruler wasn't terrible either, though I think he missed the Triple Crown trail with an injury, if memory serves me correctly. Afleet Alex was the tops though.

Travis Stone · #13 04-13-2011, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Flower Alley wasn't awful that year. Roman Ruler wasn't terrible either, though I think he missed the Triple Crown trail with an injury, if memory serves me correctly. Afleet Alex was the tops though.

Definitely...

By how many lengths would:

- Flower Alley
- Bellamy Road
- Roman Ruler
- Afleet Alex

...win this year's Kentucky Derby by?

Clip-Clop · #14 04-13-2011, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Definitely...

By how many lengths would:

- Flower Alley
- Bellamy Road
- Roman Ruler
- Afleet Alex

...win this year's Kentucky Derby by?

Considering the result in that derby...not too confident

Sightseek · #15 04-13-2011, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Definitely...

By how many lengths would:

- Flower Alley
- Bellamy Road
- Roman Ruler
- Afleet Alex

...win this year's Kentucky Derby by?

Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, Roman Ruler, Comma to the Top and The Factor would set it up great for Dialed In.

I just can't be confident that Rose wouldn't screw up again.

I can't look it up right now, but was J.V. on Flower Alley? I think Spanish Chestnut could have been a really nice horse had he not run in that Derby.