Will we have two women running for President?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think Hillary will be something like Howard Dean, strong early but then fading rapidly under closer scrutiny. Bottom line in my view is that she cannot win the general election, once this is fully realized, party support and donations will jump ship and seek out someone else.

Conde I do not see as a possessing the desire to be a politician, the fire in the belly so to speak. Rudy could likely be one of the 8-10 who throw their hat in the ring and go through the debating rounds. I do not see him as any threat for the nomination although he could wind up in the top 3-4.

Its early to get real serious about handicapping this thing, but if I had to guess on the Republican side I see it between McCain and Romney. After the election the picture should come into focus a little better.

Personally i think McCain's time has come and gone, but we will see! I disagree about Hillary, I think if nominated she wins easily! Perhaps with Obama as VP!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Personally i think McCain's time has come and gone, but we will see! I disagree about Hillary, I think if nominated she wins easily! Perhaps with Obama as VP!

These aren't my personal choices, its just how I see it playing out.
Yes McCains time has come and gone, but that won't stop him from being the favorite. They always go for the seemingly safe choice. Remember Bob Dole? You think his time hadn't passed. How many fresh faces get into this club?

Hillary wins easily?? I really don't see it. Her problem is she is not likable and has huge negatives. I've been hearing for years about how she is going to win, but it won't happen. Many look good and appear strong before the voting begins. Once it does it has a tendency to start to look a lot different.

Obama is being touted and rushed along too fast. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets serious VP consideration though.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

These aren't my personal choices, its just how I see it playing out.
Yes McCains time has come and gone, but that won't stop him from being the favorite. They always go for the seemingly safe choice. Remember Bob Dole? You think his time hadn't passed. How many fresh faces get into this club?

Hillary wins easily?? I really don't see it. Her problem is she is not likable and has huge negatives. I've been hearing for years about how she is going to win, but it won't happen. Many look good and appear strong before the voting begins. Once it does it has a tendency to start to look a lot different.

Obama is being touted and rushed along too fast. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets serious VP consideration though.

Obama is largely unknown outside his home state...I would ordinarily say that would be a minus but with recent history showing how hard it is for politicians to make the jump from the Senate to the White House because of their paper trail, perhaps this would be the right time for him as VP. Hillary has done well in Republican districts in NY so I'm not sure her negatives would be as large as you think. Clinton is still a powerful name in Democratic politics and Bill, now removed from the limelight, will be an asset. I don't think she makes the mistake of under-using her husband like Gore did. Maybe I'm overstating her appeal but I know I'd vote for her!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Obama is largely unknown outside his home state...I would ordinarily say that would be a minus but with recent history showing how hard it is for politicians to make the jump from the Senate to the White House because of their paper trail, perhaps this would be the right time for him as VP. Hillary has done well in Republican districts in NY so I'm not sure her negatives would be as large as you think. Clinton is still a powerful name in Democratic politics and Bill, now removed from the limelight, will be an asset. I don't think she makes the mistake of under-using her husband like Gore did. Maybe I'm overstating her appeal but I know I'd vote for her!

You may be right about Obama, the senate to White House route has not proved very successful (despite many having tried) so if you're going to try better to do it when you're relatively unknown. I think people tend to want to SEND someone to Washington to become president and fix whats wrong, rather than have someone slide on down from the capital. Senators are seen as part of the same Washington bureacracy, that's why governors have had much more success.

Honestly I think a Hillary campaign that utilizes Bill extensively might be the only thing that allows the Republicans to hold on to the office, imo.

[skippy3481]

I just don't think hillary would get enough votes to win. So many people would vote against her simply for being a woman. Not all democrats have progressive ideas. I know republicans wouldn't vote for her but the wiccans will have some say(unfortunatly)

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

I just don't think hillary would get enough votes to win. So many people would vote against her simply for being a woman. Not all democrats have progressive ideas. I know republicans wouldn't vote for her but the wiccans will have some say(unfortunatly)

I don't think her being a woman is the issue at all.

BTW: You guys are both wrong about McCain.

He is easily the most electable figure in either party. His problem is getting the nomination. He is essentially a libertarian in a party that has abandoned the idea that the government has no role in our personal decisions. If he is nominated he will be tough to beat.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by chromer

BTW: You guys are both wrong about McCain.

He is easily the most electable figure in either party. His problem is getting the nomination. He is essentially a libertarian in a party that has abandoned the idea that the government has no role in our personal decisions. If he is nominated he will be tough to beat.

I don't know how i'm wrong, i said he is the favorite.

When i say his time has passed it just means that he is not a fresh face anymore, no longer the maverick. I never would have pegged him as a real libertarian though.

The Bush presidency has done much for McCains chances in my view. When he starts making speeches about bringing back some fiscal restraint to the party he'll find many sympathetic ears.

Somer-

You have no idea how much energy a Hillary Clinton nomination will give to the social conservatives. I think your wish in this matter is also a Republican strategist's wet dream. Along with the nightmare for anyone who actually wants to see a Democrat elected.

I'm not saying I understand or agree with the animosity she engenders. I'm just saying that a cold clinical look at reality should tell you she's unelectable.

Dems need a Southern moderate. They also need to stop letting the Republicans define them. I doubt you see Hillary nominated. Too easy a target. You would vote for her. I might even vote for her if the Republicans miss the boat on McCain. But she'd lose in a landslide. And then you could go back into your cave for another 4 years feeling righteous.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by chromer

Somer-

You have no idea how much energy a Hillary Clinton nomination will give to the social conservatives. I think your wish in this matter is also a Republican strategist's wet dream. Along with the nightmare for anyone who actually wants to see a Democrat elected.

I'm not saying I understand or agree with the animosity she engenders. I'm just saying that a cold clinical look at reality should tell you she's unelectable.

Dems need a Southern moderate. They also need to stop letting the Republicans define them. I doubt you see Hillary nominated. Too easy a target. You would vote for her. I might even vote for her if the Republicans miss the boat on McCain. But she'd lose in a landslide. And then you could go back into your cave for another 4 years feeling righteous.

My cave? Righteous? OK, why don't you crawl back under your rock and feel superior?

Somer-

My apologies. I reread my post and you're right. It didn't come off the way I meant.

I had actually written it as "we can go back in our caves and feel righteous" but then rewrote it as it is, added another few lines and then didn't like those and so deleted them. I finally thought I was spending too much time on it and and posted what you saw.

My bad. Didn't mean it to come off as it did. Hope you understand no offense was intended though I can't deny that it is clearly, in hindsight, offensive.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by chromer

Somer-

My apologies. I reread my post and you're right. It didn't come off the way I meant.

I had actually written it as "we can go back in our caves and feel righteous" but then rewrote it as it is, added another few lines and then didn't like those and so deleted them. I finally thought I was spending too much time on it and and posted what you saw.

My bad. Didn't mean it to come off as it did. Hope you understand no offense was intended though I can't deny that it is clearly, in hindsight, offensive.

Don't worry about it...I just posted a comeback playfully! I thought maybe the cave was a reference to my references to Plato's Cave, wasn't sure about the righteous part but I was laughing when I posted my response...I constantly post stuff that people sometimes take seriously...it's simply how I am.
You might be right, this is a very angry country right now, but I really think that some areas are lost to the Dems anyway...she has done well in upstate NY and that could bode well nationally. Then again, Arnold is leading by 17 points in the polls in his reelection bid in California...who would have thunk it?

[pmayjr]

From skimming the posts so far-

I think McCain is the most electable person in this country, because no one walks the fine right-down-the-middle line like him. Yet he's a still a "Republican", which means for those idiots who don't even look at the issues, and vote "Republican" across the board, will vote for him.

I agree with Obama though. I think even more than Condi, he could get out the Black Vote. The point that outside of Illinois he's not well known, is only sorta true. He's really charismatic, he's black, and that whole retarded race where Illinois republicans brought in Alan Keyes to run against him- put that election in the limelight. Since he won in a landslide, it's only gonna help. He's black, but he's also a male, which I think gets him further than Condi believe it or not.

As for Condi- I think she'd have a shot. If she did run, it would be interesting to see how much she'd "toe Dubya's line", or would she deviate from a lot of his policies and **** ups... She might be able to get out the Black vote. But would blacks (and just people in general... any race/gender) hold her party and the man she worked for (Dubya) against her? It would be interesting to see how that would shakeout. But she is a woman, so women would vote for her in droves. She seems intelligent and strong enough. So she definately would have the most unclear result. She's got a lot going for her, but being guilty by association won't help her.

As for Hillary- hmmm... She's a woman. She's strong, she's got political experience in NY. But she's Meh. I just don't see it. I think Condi has a better chance than her. Eventhough she's the complete opposite of eveything "Dubya" stands for, she's meh...

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Personally i think McCain's time has come and gone, but we will see! I disagree about Hillary, I think if nominated she wins easily! Perhaps with Obama as VP!

Obama would never play second fiddle to Hillary. If he ran, he would destroy her in the primary. Honest people generally don't get in bed with snakes like the Clintons. A woman and a black guy couldn't get elected anyway. Hillary and Obama would both have to pick conservative white men to balance their ticket.

Hillary is going to get the nomination. The Republicans will bite their tongue and nominate McCain simply because he will destroy Hillary. Somebody that america views as a moderate will be the next president.

No more Bushes and Clintons. They are terrible people. Both families have loyalty to themselves, then their party, then america.

I would take John Edwards (somebody that does something for poor people, not just talks like the Clintons), John McCain, or Obama and be very happy.

People that support the Clintons and Bushes should have their voting rights taken away. How can people not see how phoney these people are. They are worse than Jesse Jackson or Ralph Reed. I love the Clintons carrying the bible and the Bush telling us how much of a Christian he is.

Bill Mahr had a great line, "Bush may love Jesus, but I am not so sure Jesus loves him".