With one month to go, your Derby Top 3

[3kings]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

at least you have the right idea. how can you possibly like anyone in this race yet? some people probably already know their bets....which is why they lose every year. uncle mo???thats really brave and a good betting strategy.....lol......seeing that you won't even see him run in a real prep and the favorite wins every 9 years or so....this one is starting to smell like bellamy road(i hope he wins by 10, the field is garbage)...... the last round of races has not been run......the post positions have not been drawn....what happened to the fave last year?????? oh yeah, post #1. and it could be pouring rain for all we know.....i think i'll decide on may 7th...although after seeing the weak preps on the east coast....california horses may have a good shot this year...ie. the factor and premier pegasus....depending how the weekend goes......ITS BETTING 101...never commit until all the possible varibles are known.......final preps....who gets in ...post positions...weather.......odds....ect....ect

Read the title of the thread. It's about who you think has a chance now, not what you will be betting in a month. Loosen up or have some friggen decaf.

[Thunder Gulch]

Uncle Mo- unless he is horrible this weekend or gets hurt
Premier Pegasus- had "the move" on the turn and kept going
Jaycito- will know more after this weekend, but Baffert has been high on him all along and he surveyed the entire Churchill track.

[OldDog]

Uncle Mo
The Factor
Soldat

[dagolfer33]

I'm keyboxing uncly Mo with Nehro, Pants on Fire, and Norman Absorption.

[Revidere]

Tossing the Uncle & The Factor. Would love to see them hook up in the Met Mile though.



1. Premier Pegasus
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Dialed In

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Uncle Mo- unless he is horrible this weekend or gets hurt
Premier Pegasus- had "the move" on the turn and kept going
Jaycito- will know more after this weekend, but Baffert has been high on him all along and he surveyed the entire Churchill track.

I second that

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Uncle Mo- unless he is horrible this weekend or gets hurt
Premier Pegasus- had "the move" on the turn and kept going
Jaycito- will know more after this weekend, but Baffert has been high on him all along and he surveyed the entire Churchill track.

In 48 hours, 2 of my 3 are on the shelf without even taking to the track. Be scared for Uncle Mo today.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

In 48 hours, 2 of my 3 are on the shelf without even taking to the track. Be scared for Uncle Mo today.

Seriously. If something were to happen to Uncle Mo in the next four weeks, we might be looking at Brethren as a threat to hit the board by Derby Day.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Read the title of the thread. It's about who you think has a chance now, not what you will be betting in a month. Loosen up or have some friggen decaf.

i know, i know, i deleted it. i should not even read half this stuff. i'm always looking to win bets and i'm not that good at being a fan or fooling around( i can't understand how people argue over 4-5 shots, like zenyatta or rachel...but they do)....i'm a gambler, i take it way serious because i always look for ways to win beating the chalk which is the way you make money. then i think everyone else is a serious about trying to win as i am....when they are actually just having fun. the "fun" for me is winning bets, the hype is a distraction to me.....i should watch what i say/read here....but sometimes i forget......sorry, i'm what you would call a hardcore horseplayer...i look at every race and think how i would play it and from the history of this race i think its really foolish to count on favorites or to try and pick way ahead of time....i know its not fun but thats just me. its a whole different game when you have to win to make money. thats why i get into trouble running my mouth here at times. the talk is just talk...it does not equal live tickets. i forget every time....sorry

[Arletta]

Uncle Mo
Dialed In
The Factor

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i know, i know, i deleted it. i should not even read half this stuff. i'm always looking to win bets and i'm not that good at being a fan or fooling around( i can't understand how people argue over 4-5 shots, like zenyatta or rachel...but they do)....i'm a gambler, i take it way serious because i always look for ways to win beating the chalk which is the way you make money. then i think everyone else is a serious about trying to win as i am....when they are actually just having fun. the "fun" for me is winning bets, the hype is a distraction to me.....i should watch what i say/read here....but sometimes i forget......sorry, i'm what you would call a hardcore horseplayer...i look at every race and think how i would play it and from the history of this race i think its really foolish to count on favorites or to try and pick way ahead of time....i know its not fun but thats just me. its a whole different game when you have to win to make money. thats why i get into trouble running my mouth here at times. the talk is just talk...it does not equal live tickets. i forget every time....sorry

That is easily your best, and truest, post here.

Until that post, you, at least to me, were a much less abrasive version of TFF. Unable to understand that their are different perspectives than yours when it comes to how people approach racing, and what people get out of the sport.

To TFF, anything different from how he saw things sent him into some sort of weird raging fugue state.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i know, i know, i deleted it. i should not even read half this stuff. i'm always looking to win bets and i'm not that good at being a fan or fooling around( i can't understand how people argue over 4-5 shots, like zenyatta or rachel...but they do)....i'm a gambler, i take it way serious because i always look for ways to win beating the chalk which is the way you make money. then i think everyone else is a serious about trying to win as i am....when they are actually just having fun. the "fun" for me is winning bets, the hype is a distraction to me.....i should watch what i say/read here....but sometimes i forget......sorry, i'm what you would call a hardcore horseplayer...i look at every race and think how i would play it and from the history of this race i think its really foolish to count on favorites or to try and pick way ahead of time....i know its not fun but thats just me. its a whole different game when you have to win to make money. thats why i get into trouble running my mouth here at times. the talk is just talk...it does not equal live tickets. i forget every time....sorry

It's cool. I agree with most of this, the derby is the one race that is different for me. There is more speculation because none of the horses will have run this far or against so many. Plus you pay more attention because of future wagers etc... This is the one race I think about before the pp's are drawn.

[cal828]

Most Likely: Dialed In (Giacomo's brother from a different mother)
Best Value: Shackleford (with Calvin Borel riding)
Next Best: Uncle Mo (Afleet Alex's brother from a different mother)

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cal828

Most Likely: Dialed In (Giacomo's brother from a different mother)
Best Value: Shackleford (with Calvin Borel riding)
Next Best: Uncle Mo (Afleet Alex's brother from a different mother)

Really?

I'm not sure which of the three I disagree with most.

Probably Shackleford with Borel riding, I guess.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Really?

I'm not sure which of the three I disagree with most.

Probably Shackleford with Borel riding, I guess.

Just a speculation on my part about where Borel might end up. It seems doubtful at this point that his present mount (Elite Alex) will even get in unless by some miracle he wins the Arky Derby. Have to think that Borel will still get a mount and I don't think Pletcher is going to kick Johhnny V. off Uncle Mo.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cal828

Just a speculation on my part about where Borel might end up. It seems doubtful at this point that his present mount (Elite Alex) will even get in unless by some miracle he wins the Arky Derby. Have to think that Borel will still get a mount and I don't think Pletcher is going to kick Johhnny V. off Uncle Mo.

Yeah, but do you really see Shackleford doing well if he's held back in last place and tries that rail move?

[Sightseek]

Dialed In
Toby's Corner
Mucho Macho Man

[Indian Charlie]

R Heat Lightning

Arienza

Rumor.