Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't necessarily disagree, and this horse doesn't strike me as a likely Derby contender. And you are right that calling him a "complete" wild card was probably a bit of an overstatement by my client.
But I still think the point about a horse who appears as if he might possibly be an improving 3yo on dirt making his last derby prep over synthetic being something of an unknown quantity if he runs in the Derby is a reasonable enough point.

"Might" be improving? As was pointed out (by the same poster who seems to be completely perplexed by the horse's form), the horse went from a 78 Beyer in his final 2yo start to a 91 in his 3yo debut.

I suppose an open length victory, in a major prep race, on a natural dirt surface, with a triple digit Beyer will ram the point home; but what would that do to the horse's price on Derby Day?