KY Derby field taking shape

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There will be at least two horses who go off at 50/1 or more this year.

Among last years group - every single horse in the race looked like a terrible and hopeless chance on paper coming in. Even people who try to bet the race seriously were lost.

Even without Uncle Mo - it's still 95% you won't have a Derby where very little if anything seperates the favorites from the 12th choice in the betting.

its fun to talk about and all.......but how do you bet this race seriously?????have you seen the recent winners? this is everyones first mistake ...thinking this is a good betting race......it will be the worst that day(unless you get lucky and see something different or just plain get lucky), considering the undercard. the derby is about beating the fave (because the fave almost loses every time) and getting lucky. the best horse USUALLY has to be lucky just not to get hammered by other horses....what derby do people watch to assume the best horse wins????????? thats a rarity...every year i hear the same story...people have "annual" memory loss....take that, uncle mo we are giving you the 1 or 2 hole with the freak out horse next door....take that. at 9-5.........."oh, the chalk just got sawed off on the backstretch".....every dog has his day and thats the type of race it is........

[Thunder Gulch]

I think its a good betting race, but you have to spread it around. You can get good horses at big prices, and the exotics are crazy.

While the best doesn't always win, I think LAL was last year, it's not rare for the best to win. Look back at the past decade and tell me how many of the winners were total flukes. Nobody saw Mine That Bird coming, but he was the best colt in the Triple Crown.

Super Saver- not the best, but made sense on the track

Mine That Bird- nobody saw it, but somewhat validated his effort in the series. Bad Crop

Big Brown- clearly the best

Street Sense- deep year and he was the best.

Barbaro- best in the race

Giacomo- Alex was better, but Giacomo ran decently through the series

Smarty Jones- clearly the best

Funny Cide- tossup, maybe Empire Maker

War Emblem- nobody else stepped up

Monarchos- Point Given better, but burned out that day

Fusaichi Pegasus- clearly the best

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

its fun to talk about and all.......but how do you bet this race seriously?????have you seen the recent winners? this is everyones first mistake ...thinking this is a good betting race......it will be the worst that day(unless you get lucky and see something different or just plain get lucky), considering the undercard. the derby is about beating the fave (because the fave almost loses every time) and getting lucky. the best horse USUALLY has to be lucky just not to get hammered by other horses....what derby do people watch to assume the best horse wins????????? thats a rarity...every year i hear the same story...people have "annual" memory loss....take that, uncle mo we are giving you the 1 or 2 hole with the freak out horse next door....take that. at 9-5.........."oh, the chalk just got sawed off on the backstretch".....every dog has his day and thats the type of race it is........

I can't agree with this assessment at all. The Derby is usually one of the best betting races of the year. Any race with 20 betting interests is bound to create overlays, generally the number of betting interests alone makes it a solid race to bet in. Further, there is no race with more stupid money bet into the pool, including tons of money dumped on horses with no chance to win by the clueless for sentimental reasons.

Even if there is a heavy favorite that is likely to win, as there clearly is at this point this year, that doesn't mean that specific pools can't be profitably attacked, such as exactas, tris and supers. Also, the claim that it is a rarity that the best horse wins is completely wrong, more often than not the best horse wins, traffic, post or whatnot. The 20 hole didn't seem to deter Big Brown from clearly showing he was the best horse. It is all about assessing a proper plan of attack to get value whether horzontally or vertically and properly singling or spreading depending on the likelihood of the favorite winning.