Payoff in a Graded Stake

[keithting]

Yes, I forgot that Closing Argument was also a huge longshot and went off at 70-1. I never think of him as going off at those long odds......

[justindew]

Originally Posted by keithting

Yes, I forgot that Closing Argument was also a huge longshot and went off at 70-1. I never think of him as going off at those long odds......

The fact that Closing Argument was 70-1 in 2005 and Balktalk was like 20-1 last year shows how dramatically Derby wagering has changed in recent years.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by justindew

The fact that Closing Argument was 70-1 in 2005 and Balktalk was like 20-1 last year shows how dramatically Derby wagering has changed in recent years.

Win odds in the Derby are a complete waste of time and effort, they do nothing to show you how a horse is actually valued any more.

Make Music For Me was 30-1 in the win pool this year, second longest shot in the 20-horse field, but was more like 100-1 when you saw his impact on the superfecta, even to finish fourth. Tri paid $1100+ for a buck, super paid $101,000+. All the value is in the exotic pools, which fortunately, the $2 buck chucks never pay any attention to. If he got up for third, it probably would've paid four or five times more on the super, and about 10-15 times in the trifecta.

[keithting]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Win odds in the Derby are a complete waste of time and effort, they do nothing to show you how a horse is actually valued any more.

Make Music For Me was 30-1 in the win pool this year, second longest shot in the 20-horse field, but was more like 100-1 when you saw his impact on the superfecta, even to finish fourth. Tri paid $1100+ for a buck, super paid $101,000+. All the value is in the exotic pools, which fortunately, the $2 buck chucks never pay any attention to. If he got up for third, it probably would've paid four or five times more on the super, and about 10-15 times in the trifecta.

Thanks for the perspective.

I look forward to this year's Derby for another big exotics opportunity !!

[cal828]

Originally Posted by keithting

Thanks for the perspective.

I look forward to this year's Derby for another big exotics opportunity !!

Me too. Even a dime super would have paid 10k.

[ranger5830]

I would think the record for a G1 race other than the derby would have to be the '99 BC Classic when Cat Thief beat Budroyale, Golden Missile and Chester House and led to a $2 tri of $39,000 and a $1 superfecta of over $692,000.