New Zealand Racing, 2010-11

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YIN YANG MASTER
3 g Fastnet Rock - Crazy Fling
Breeder: Three Bridge Thoroughbreds
Owner: BJ Bolton & T Li
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Starts: 9
Wins: 1
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 3
Earnings: $33,375

Last start: Avondale Guineas (8th)
Best performance of the season: Great Northern Guineas (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGwzcGZvGf4

Season so far:
9th 3yo
7th Maiden
3rd Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd 3yo behind Raffles Knight
3rd Great Northern Guineas behind Jimmy Choux and Icepin
3rd 3yo behind Banchee and Historian
2nd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
8th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
Fastnet Rock is a pretty speedy sire, but the dam is a daughter of Alysheba, so there should be a bit of stamina there. Plus, he just looks like a guy who can handle a distance - he's a big, powerful individual. I don't think there are any problems here.

Positives:
- Hardly ever runs a bad race
- He's proven that he belongs in the best 3yo company
- Mark Du Plessis in the saddle

Negatives:
- He keeps running good races without actually winning - just one win from 9 starts

Current odds:
24-1

So can he win?
I don't think so. He'll definitely run a good race, and I'm sure he'll finish in the first half, but I just don't see him winning this Derby. Jimmy Choux has beaten him twice in their two meetings, and I don't think he can turn the tables on him. I'm expecting a similar performance to the one he produced in the Avondale Guineas.

Predicted finish:
8th



RAFFLES KNIGHT
3 c Encosta De Lago - Lady Circles
Breeder: Arch Of Gold Ltd & Moffatt Breeding and Racing
Owner: Raffles Dancers Ltd
Trainer: Stephen McKee
Jockey: Leith Innes

Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $21,125

Last start: Avondale Guineas (6th)
Best performance of the season: 3yo (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEv6x-5HR0Q

Season so far:
1st Maiden
1st 3yo
4th Great Northern Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
4th Rating 80
6th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
Very strong. Encosta De Lago is a terrific stamina sire. There should be no doubts at all about this horse's staying ability.

Positives:
- No bad races in his career
- He's bred to be very good
- Derby-winning jockey Leith Innes aboard

Negatives:
- After winning his first two starts, he's been beaten in his next three
- He's still quite inexperienced and immature

Current odds:
26-1

So can he win?
He has a chance, but I think it's more likely that he'll run another very solid race and finish just behind the action. I believe he's a horse to watch next year.

Predicted finish:
9th