New Zealand Racing, 2010-11

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HIDDEN ASSET
3 g High Chaparral - Fragile Asset
Breeder: BE & RW Punch
Owner: BR Broomhead, GG Syndicate, Parsons Bloodstock, KL Syminton and Twelve Cheers Syndicate
Trainer: Shaune Ritchie
Jockey: Vinnie Colgan

Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $66,400

Major wins:
Championship Stakes (G2)

Last start: Avondale Guineas (14th)
Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA

Season so far:
3rd Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Championship Stakes, beating Hot Pursuit and Yourein
6th Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
14th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
Very strong. He's another High Chaparral, and his dam is a Zabeel mare. He should love the 2400m of the Derby.

Positives:
- Showed loads of ability when he won a G2 race over 2100m at Ellerslie on Jan 1
- Ritchie trained Military Move to win the Derby last year
- Colgan has ridden four Derby winners

Negatives:
- His last two races have been the two worst performances of his career, and no one can explain why.

Current odds:
19-1

So can he win?
If you had asked me this in January, I would have said yes. He's been as high as my second pick for the Derby in the past. But his last performance was just terrible. If he miraculously returns to his best, he could win this. But I don't see him turning it around that quickly.

Predicted finish:
10th




NIPPIN
3 c Pins - Wait A Minute
Breeder: Waikato Stud
Owner: EM Bourke, NA Bourke, AR Piercy, MI Eliason, JP Fleming and JA Washer
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Jockey: Shane Scriven

Starts: 7
Wins: 2
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $36,125

Last start: Rating 90
Best performance of the season: Conditions Race (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8Yw_E1vT1M

Season so far:
6th Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd 3yo
3rd 3yo
2nd Rating 70
1st Conditions Race
2nd Rating 90

Pedigree:
A little bit questionable - Pins is a speed sire. But the dam is by a good stamina sire in Centaine, and she won over 2100m herself.

Positives:
- Rated very highly by his trainer, who has already won a Derby with Wahid in 2006.
- Since his below-par debut, he hasn't run a bad race.

Negatives:
- Hasn't faced stakes-class horses yet
- He probably should have beaten that Rating 90 field in his last start, so he's coming into the race off a slightly disappointing effort.

Current odds:
25-1

So can he win?
His trainer seems to think so, so you can't completely rule it out. But I'm a bit worried about the fact that he hasn't faced good-class opposition yet. The Derby is going to be a big step up for this colt. He'll need to find five or six lengths on his last performance.

Predicted finish:
14th




HISTORIAN
3 g Choisir - Cyclonic
Breeder: Bledisloe Bloodstock
Owner: Ngai Chun-Hung
Trainer: Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue
Jockey: Chad Ormsby

Starts: 6
Wins: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $32,125

Last start: Avondale Guineas (4th)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNbJA_nRqZI

Season so far:
2nd Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Rating 70
2nd 3yo - a nose behind Banchee
3rd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
4th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
He's by the great Australian sprinter Choisir, so there are some concerns here. The dam, Cyclonic, also has a speedy pedigree, and her only win was 1300m - that's a long way short of 2400m. I hear alarm bells.

Positives:
- This is a really, really talented horse
- He's never run a bad race, and has faced some of the very best 3yos in NZ - Banchee, Jimmy Choux and Icepin won his last three races

Negatives:
- The distance is going to be a huge test for this guy, I think

Current odds:
17-1

So can he win?
If he gets the distance, yes, he could win this race. He has proven himself to be not far behind the likes of Jimmy Choux, Banchee and Icepin. But I'm really worried about the 2400m for Historian. His pedigree suggests that even trying it is lunacy. He's done 2000m and 2100m in his last two starts and performed well, but this is another step up. I think it's just too far for him. But he'll be a good horse over shorter distances next year.

Predicted finish:
12th