New Zealand Racing, 2010-11

[_ed_]

That's right - her name's Samantha, but she prefers Sam.

Here's the full Derby field:

10111 Jimmy Choux 7 94 56.0 Jonathan Riddell John Bary, Hastings
12530 He's Remarkable 14 82 56.0 Matthew Cameron Roger James, Cambridge
01221 Icepin 5 88 56.0 Sam Spratt Jason Bridgman, Matamata
31160 Hidden Asset 8 73 56.0 Shaune Ritchie, Cambridge
21642 On The Level 12 80 56.0 Michael Coleman Murray & Bjorn Baker, Cambridge
31360 Yourein 13 70 56.0 Lisa Allpress John Sargent, Matamata
45559 Encosta Diablo 3 75 56.0 Opie Bosson Jason Bridgman, Matamata
12126 Jetset Lad 17 84 56.0 Scott Galloway John Wheeler, New Plymouth
23212 Nippin 11 76 56.0 Allan Sharrock, New Plymouth
23328 Yin Yang Master 10 76 56.0 Mark Du Plessis John Sargent, Matamata
52115 O'Reilly's Prize 1 78 56.0 Hayden Tinsley David Haworth & Matt Dixon, Foxton
11234 Historian 4 77 56.0 Chad Ormsby Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue, Cambridge
11446 Raffles Knight 2 74 56.0 Stephen McKee, Ardmore
54113 Sierra Nevada 16 77 56.0 Richard & Chris Otto, Te Awamutu
171 Wisecrack 15 74 56.0 Ken & Bev Kelso, Matamata
44913 Between The Beats 9 70 56.0 Jeff Lynds, Awapuni
52110 Banchee 6 86 54.5 James McDonald (a) John Sargent, Matamata

So the answers are yes and yes!

[my miss storm cat]

Thank you cause I stupidly assumed she was a he but just to be clear I meant the other one... Danielle Johnson (I had to look up her name. Duh.).

Which is his regular rider or does he not really have one?

[_ed_]

HIDDEN ASSET
3 g High Chaparral - Fragile Asset
Breeder: BE & RW Punch
Owner: BR Broomhead, GG Syndicate, Parsons Bloodstock, KL Syminton and Twelve Cheers Syndicate
Trainer: Shaune Ritchie
Jockey: Vinnie Colgan

Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $66,400

Major wins:
Championship Stakes (G2)

Last start: Avondale Guineas (14th)
Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA

Season so far:
3rd Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Championship Stakes, beating Hot Pursuit and Yourein
6th Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
14th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
Very strong. He's another High Chaparral, and his dam is a Zabeel mare. He should love the 2400m of the Derby.

Positives:
- Showed loads of ability when he won a G2 race over 2100m at Ellerslie on Jan 1
- Ritchie trained Military Move to win the Derby last year
- Colgan has ridden four Derby winners

Negatives:
- His last two races have been the two worst performances of his career, and no one can explain why.

Current odds:
19-1

So can he win?
If you had asked me this in January, I would have said yes. He's been as high as my second pick for the Derby in the past. But his last performance was just terrible. If he miraculously returns to his best, he could win this. But I don't see him turning it around that quickly.

Predicted finish:
10th




NIPPIN
3 c Pins - Wait A Minute
Breeder: Waikato Stud
Owner: EM Bourke, NA Bourke, AR Piercy, MI Eliason, JP Fleming and JA Washer
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Jockey: Shane Scriven

Starts: 7
Wins: 2
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $36,125

Last start: Rating 90
Best performance of the season: Conditions Race (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8Yw_E1vT1M

Season so far:
6th Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd 3yo
3rd 3yo
2nd Rating 70
1st Conditions Race
2nd Rating 90

Pedigree:
A little bit questionable - Pins is a speed sire. But the dam is by a good stamina sire in Centaine, and she won over 2100m herself.

Positives:
- Rated very highly by his trainer, who has already won a Derby with Wahid in 2006.
- Since his below-par debut, he hasn't run a bad race.

Negatives:
- Hasn't faced stakes-class horses yet
- He probably should have beaten that Rating 90 field in his last start, so he's coming into the race off a slightly disappointing effort.

Current odds:
25-1

So can he win?
His trainer seems to think so, so you can't completely rule it out. But I'm a bit worried about the fact that he hasn't faced good-class opposition yet. The Derby is going to be a big step up for this colt. He'll need to find five or six lengths on his last performance.

Predicted finish:
14th




HISTORIAN
3 g Choisir - Cyclonic
Breeder: Bledisloe Bloodstock
Owner: Ngai Chun-Hung
Trainer: Tony Pike & Mark Donoghue
Jockey: Chad Ormsby

Starts: 6
Wins: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $32,125

Last start: Avondale Guineas (4th)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNbJA_nRqZI

Season so far:
2nd Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Rating 70
2nd 3yo - a nose behind Banchee
3rd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
4th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
He's by the great Australian sprinter Choisir, so there are some concerns here. The dam, Cyclonic, also has a speedy pedigree, and her only win was 1300m - that's a long way short of 2400m. I hear alarm bells.

Positives:
- This is a really, really talented horse
- He's never run a bad race, and has faced some of the very best 3yos in NZ - Banchee, Jimmy Choux and Icepin won his last three races

Negatives:
- The distance is going to be a huge test for this guy, I think

Current odds:
17-1

So can he win?
If he gets the distance, yes, he could win this race. He has proven himself to be not far behind the likes of Jimmy Choux, Banchee and Icepin. But I'm really worried about the 2400m for Historian. His pedigree suggests that even trying it is lunacy. He's done 2000m and 2100m in his last two starts and performed well, but this is another step up. I think it's just too far for him. But he'll be a good horse over shorter distances next year.

Predicted finish:
12th

[_ed_]

YIN YANG MASTER
3 g Fastnet Rock - Crazy Fling
Breeder: Three Bridge Thoroughbreds
Owner: BJ Bolton & T Li
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Starts: 9
Wins: 1
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 3
Earnings: $33,375

Last start: Avondale Guineas (8th)
Best performance of the season: Great Northern Guineas (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGwzcGZvGf4

Season so far:
9th 3yo
7th Maiden
3rd Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd 3yo behind Raffles Knight
3rd Great Northern Guineas behind Jimmy Choux and Icepin
3rd 3yo behind Banchee and Historian
2nd Waikato Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
8th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
Fastnet Rock is a pretty speedy sire, but the dam is a daughter of Alysheba, so there should be a bit of stamina there. Plus, he just looks like a guy who can handle a distance - he's a big, powerful individual. I don't think there are any problems here.

Positives:
- Hardly ever runs a bad race
- He's proven that he belongs in the best 3yo company
- Mark Du Plessis in the saddle

Negatives:
- He keeps running good races without actually winning - just one win from 9 starts

Current odds:
24-1

So can he win?
I don't think so. He'll definitely run a good race, and I'm sure he'll finish in the first half, but I just don't see him winning this Derby. Jimmy Choux has beaten him twice in their two meetings, and I don't think he can turn the tables on him. I'm expecting a similar performance to the one he produced in the Avondale Guineas.

Predicted finish:
8th



RAFFLES KNIGHT
3 c Encosta De Lago - Lady Circles
Breeder: Arch Of Gold Ltd & Moffatt Breeding and Racing
Owner: Raffles Dancers Ltd
Trainer: Stephen McKee
Jockey: Leith Innes

Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $21,125

Last start: Avondale Guineas (6th)
Best performance of the season: 3yo (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEv6x-5HR0Q

Season so far:
1st Maiden
1st 3yo
4th Great Northern Guineas behind Jimmy Choux
4th Rating 80
6th Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
Very strong. Encosta De Lago is a terrific stamina sire. There should be no doubts at all about this horse's staying ability.

Positives:
- No bad races in his career
- He's bred to be very good
- Derby-winning jockey Leith Innes aboard

Negatives:
- After winning his first two starts, he's been beaten in his next three
- He's still quite inexperienced and immature

Current odds:
26-1

So can he win?
He has a chance, but I think it's more likely that he'll run another very solid race and finish just behind the action. I believe he's a horse to watch next year.

Predicted finish:
9th

[_ed_]

SIERRA NEVADA
3 g High Chaparral - Rata
Breeder: EO Aitken
Owner: JC & MA Thompson
Trainer: Richard & Chris Otto
Jockey: Jim Byrne

Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $15,325

Last start: Avondale Guineas (3rd)
Best performance of the season: Avondale Guineas (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02cKpN-DRgY

Season so far:
5th Maiden
4th Maiden
1st Maiden
1st Rating 70
3rd Avondale Guineas behind Icepin

Pedigree:
High Chaparral - that's about all that needs to be said. And his dam, Rata, won three races over distances up to 2200m. This guy is bred to run all day.

Positives:
- He's getting good at exactly the right time - each start has been better than the one before it
- Very solid pedigree

Negatives:
- He was a maiden on Jan 28 - is this too much, too quickly?

Current odds:
16-1

So can he win?
He can, but I think it's unlikely. He came from absolutely nowhere, improving an enormous amount in a very short period of time. The trainers said they are a bit worried that the Derby might be a bit too soon for him, and I share that concern. He's going to be a very good horse, but I think this will be a learning curve. Having said that, I think he'll run a strong race and go close to finishing in the money.

Predicted finish:
6th




ON THE LEVEL
3 g Align - Springtime Romance
Breeder: Highview Stud
Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker
Trainer: Murray & Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Michael Coleman

Starts: 9
Wins: 2
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $46,475

Last start: Avondale Guineas (2nd)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKnTiClTQao

Season so far:
2nd Maiden
1st Maiden
2nd Rating 70
1st Conditions Race
6th Great Northern Guineas
4th Waikato Guineas
2nd Avondale Guineas

Pedigree:
Quite speedy - Align is well known as a sire of sprinters. But On The Level has already performed well in two distance races, so it may not be a concern.

Positives:
- Two very good races in a row against tremendous opposition
- He was doing his best work at the very end of the Avondale Guineas
- Coleman has won the Derby twice, including aboard Xcellent in 2004
- The Bakers are having a great season with the 3yos they train - Lion Tamer, We Can Say It Now...

Negatives:
- His two victories were both in quite low-quality company
- There's not much stamina in his pedigree


Current odds:
18-1

So can he win?
Yes, and quite a few people are picking him as a live longshot chance. But I think that lack of stamina in his pedigree might cause him some trouble. He's also had two gut-busting runs in very tough company. That might start to take its toll as the field turns for home in the Derby.

Predicted finish:
11th




YOUREIN
3 g Reset - It's You
Breeder: DW Flower
Owner: Sir Patrick Hogan, AJ Sutherland, AC Timpson & PJ Walker
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Lisa Allpress

Starts: 8
Wins: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 3
Earnings: $41,400

Last start: Avondale Guineas (13th)
Best performance of the season: Championship Stakes (3rd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_O_xMVlqA

Season so far:
8th Maiden
3rd Maiden
1st 3yo (listed)
3rd Championship Stakes behind Hidden Asset
6th Karaka Mile behind Banchee
13th Avondale Guineas

Pedigree:
It's hard to say. Reset is a reasonably new sire. It's a bit of a weird pedigree, really. It's difficult to come to any sort of verdict about it. But this horse's owners know a lot about that sort of thing, so they must have liked what they saw when he went through the sale ring.

Positives:
- A listed stakes winner over 2100m at Ellerslie
- Jockey Lisa Allpress is in the best form of her life - currently 2nd on the premiership
- One of three runners in the race for trainer John Sargent

Negatives:
- It looks like he peaked in December/January - his form is going downhill

Current odds:
40-1

So can he win?
I don't think so. The Derby used to be run on Boxing Day, and I think if it was this time, he would have been one of the main chances. He was a good horse in December and January. But his performances have really gone downhill in the last couple of months. It would be a big surprise if he won.

Predicted finish:
16th




JETSET LAD
3 g Elusive City - Jetset Lass
Breeder: Stewarts' Racehorse Syndicate
Owner: CE & CJW Stewart
Trainer: John Wheeler
Jockey: Scott Galloway

Starts: 10
Wins: 3
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $43,100

Last start: Avondale Guineas (7th)
Best performance of the season: Wellington Stakes (2nd)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR0-ddZDfrI

Season so far:
5th Rating 70
8th Rating 70
9th Wellington Guineas
3rd Rating 70
1st Rating 70
2nd 3yo
1st 3yo
2nd Wellington Stakes
7th Avondale Guineas

Pedigree:
Reasonably solid. Elusive City is a good sire, and his dam, Jetset Lass, wasn't far away when she ran 8th in the NZ Oaks in 2003.

Positives:
- A very good effort behind Jimmy Choux in the Wellington Stakes
- Distance shouldn't be a problem

Negatives:
- Form is inconsistent
- I was looking for a little more in the Avondale Guineas
- Jockey Scott Galloway has never ridden at Ellerslie before - it's a tricky track to ride

Current odds:
26-1

So can he win?
My opinion is that he can't. He's a bit hot-and-cold, and what was by far his best performance of the season came on a track that was much wetter than Ellerslie is likely to be this weekend. And even though he ran well that day, Jimmy was clearly the better horse. I don't think it'll be Jetset Lad's day on Saturday.

Predicted finish:
15th



BETWEEN THE BEATS
3 g Golan - Whistling Jazz
Breeder: CP & KR Russell
Owner: GKV Holdings Ltd, MA Head & M Isaac
Trainer: Jeff Lynds
Jockey: Noel Harris

Starts: 5
Wins: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $8,600

Last start: Rating 80 (3rd)
Best performance of the season: Maiden (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igAyWOd4EKI

Season so far:
4th 3yo
4th Maiden
9th Wellington Stakes
1st Maiden
3rd Rating 80

Pedigree:
Not bad. Golan has been a successful sire, and has sired a few Derby contenders in the past. The dam, Whistling Jazz, won a race.

Positives:
- Only one really poor performance
- Trained by Jeff Lynds, who is having a great streak - Vosne Romanee, Wall Street and Booming

Negatives:
- That one bad performance was his only start against stakes-quality horses
- This is a really huge step up from Rating 80 grade

Current odds:
60-1

So can he win?
No offense to the horse or any of his connections, but I'm going to predict that this horse will finish in last place. Someone has to come 17th, and Between The Beats has the least impressive credentials in this field.

Predicted finish:
17th

[_ed_]

LAST ONE!

And you might notice I still haven't picked a horse to finish 2nd...



ENCOSTA DIABLO
3 c Encosta De Lago - Devil's Lair
Breeder: Pencarrow Stud
Owner: Te Akau Stud
Trainer: Jason Bridgman
Jockey: Opie Bosson

Starts: 10
Wins: 4
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $73,575

Last start: Avondale Guineas (9th)
Best performance of the season: Karaka Mile (fast-finishing 5th)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO-CDZOWe1Q

Season so far:
1st 3yo
1st 3yo
4th Ray Coupland Stakes
5th New Zealand 2000 Guineas
5th 3yo
5th Karaka Mile (fast-finishing)
9th Avondale Guineas (unlucky and fast-finishing)

Pedigree:
The best in the field. He's by champion Australian sire Encosta De Lago. His dam is Devil's Lair, which makes him a half-brother to two Oaks winners - Vapour Trail and Santagostino. This pedigree, and his eye-catching conformation, saw him sell for one of the highest prices in the yearling sales of his year.

Positives:
- Sensational breeding
- He hasn't run a bad race this season
- A stakes-winner as a 2yo, so no doubting his ability
- He's desperate for a step up in distance
- Trained by Bridgman and ridden by Bosson - that combo seems to be working well with King's Rose!

Negatives:
- No wins since October

Current odds:
15-1

So can he win?
Yes. He's a beautifully bred and very highly talented galloper, ridden and trained by some of the best in NZ. There's no doubt he'll handle the distance. If it's not Jimmy's day on Saturday, it just might be Encosta's.

Predicted finish:
2nd


All done! That's the whole field. Thanks and congrats if you read all that!

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Predicted finish:
2nd


All done! That's the whole field. Thanks and congrats if you read all that!

Interesting!

Thank you for spending all this time... this is great and I've read through it twice (so far).

Okay just for fun here's mine at this (kinda) early date (although it's realy not so early is it?)...

1. Jimmy
2. Icepin
3. Yin Yang Master
4. Banchee
5. Historian
6. Wisecrack
7. Hidden Asset
8. He's Remarkable
9. Encosta Diablo
10. Raffles Knight
11. Sierra Nevada


Everyone else.

Honestly, I can't wait!

[_ed_]

That looks like a very good list!

Ooh, BIG jockey news:

Chris Munce can't make it over to ride Wisecrack anymore.

Have a look at who they've got to replace him...
http://www.nzracing.co.nz/Meetings/M...8383#raceLink9


He's never ridden in NZ before. Excited that I'm going to see him!