New Zealand Racing, 2010-11

[my miss storm cat]

I"m really starting to love Icepin and decided I'm going to predict right along with you.

So far I have Jimmy winning as well and this one 2nd.

I don't want to interrupt the fantastic job you're doing (and God you will never know how much I appreciate this!) but where's my slow boy Upsala? Has he raced since that day when (I think ) he didn't like the wet track?

Thanks!

Oh yeah and whatever that Mufhasa didn't win!

Tough field... even for a HOY and finishing where he did was pretty damned good, you're right!

[_ed_]

And Mufhasa had a bad flight over the day before - stuck in a box for 13 hours! It's usually about five or six hours. Poor guy. Might have affected his performance.

I can tell you that Upsala ran second in a trial on the 24th.

He was in heat 19: http://www.nzracing.co.nz/Meetings/T...lts.aspx/38946

I see he beat a G1 winner (Miss Raggedy Ann)!

I haven't heard what the plans are for Upsala, but I'll post them here if I do.

[my miss storm cat]

That's awesome!

Thanks for the news and wow poor Mufhasa. That sucks!

[_ed_]

A couple that you might not have heard much about...




O'REILLY'S PRIZE
3 g O'Reilly - Jabeske
Breeder: AJ, JTE, MJ and TH Gilbert
Owner: KS Daley, AJ, JTE, MJ and TH Gilbert, C Maddock and W van der Scheer
Trainer: David Haworth & Matt Dixon
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley

Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $32,875


Last start: Avondale Guineas (5th)
Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_518xuRxuI4

Season so far:
2nd Maiden
1st Maiden
5th Rating 70
2nd Rating 70
1st Rating 70
1st Rating 80
5th Avondale Guineas - unlucky

Pedigree:
He has a very solid pedigree that suggests a mile and a half should pose no problems. But there's not a huge amount of ability on the dam side - Jabeske herself won two races, but her first two foals to race didn't perform well at all. O'Reilly's Prize is already her most successful foal by a long way.

Positives:
- Seems to be peaking at the right time
- Bred to love the distance
- Ran a good race in the Avondale Guineas - without interference, he could have finished 2nd
- Hayden Tinsley is one of our best big-race jockeys

Negatives:
- He hasn't completely proven that he belongs at this level
- The races he has won were quite poor fields - he's never come up against a horse as good as Jimmy Choux

Current odds:
13-1

So can he win?
He's getting a pretty big reputation and is quite popular with a lot of experts. I think he's going to become a nice horse in time, but I don't think it'll be his day on Derby day.

Predicted finish:
13th




WISECRACK
3 g High Chaparral - Limerick
Breeder: GE Harding
Owner: GE Harding
Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso
Jockey: Chris Munce

Starts: 3
Wins: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $10,925


Last start: Rating 70 (1st)
Best performance of the season: Rating 70 (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SheGNf5e-ck

Season so far:
1st Maiden
7th Rating 70
1st Rating 70

Pedigree:
Exceptional. He's by High Chaparral, who sired VRC Derby winner Monaco Consul and the trifecta of the AJC Derby last season. So there's no doubt about running the Derby distance on the sire side! Limerick is a stakes-winning mare who has already produced some quality horses - including Wishing and highly promising stayer Gallant.

Positives:
- A hugely promising young horse
- Has won at Ellerslie
- Outstanding pedigree
- Goes into the race on the back of his best performance so far
- A brilliant jockey

Negatives:
- The Derby will be just his fourth start. No horse apart from Xcellent in recent years has won the Derby after having so little foundation.

Current odds:
16-1

So can he win?
He could, but I think inexperience might stand in his way. It'll be just his fourth start. He's seen nothing yet that comes close to preparing him for this 18-horse stampede. I think he might turn out in time to be one of the best horses in this race, but I think the race is just a bit too soon in his career for him. But watch him next year.

Predicted finish:
7th