2/26 (GP): Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, Davona Dale (G2's)

[Danzig]

from bloodhorse:


It will also be on to the Florida Derby for To Honor and Serve. "(Velazquez) liked his race," trainer Bill Mott said. "He said (To Honor and Serve) did everything he asked until he got to the quarter pole, and then he said he got a little flat. I can imagine he might have needed the race. If he got beat I thought he might carry (Velazquez) a little more into the stretch.
"It looks like he needed the race. John compared him to the horse he rode and won the Davona Dale (R Heat Lightning). The first time down here she was a little flat and she came back and ran big today.”

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A typically useless jockey and trainer quote.

I think the R Heat Lightning comparison he makes was because she was 4 wide chasing a fast pace in her prior start. He wasn't on Devil May Care last year for her 3yo debut at FG - I think Castellano was - but that was the same type of thing. DMC chased a very fast pace four wide through the 1st turn - and when she couldn't go with inside horse on the far turn she hit the reset button and fired on the airbreaks... I think she was like 5th by 12 in that race.

Mine That Bird was 4th or 5th in the Sunland Derby when wide and chasing a very fast pace. Sure, his Derby was a fluke - but he just missed in the Preakness - and a lot of people thought he was best in the Belmont.

Archarcharch was hung wide against a fast pace in the Smarty Jones when he faded. There's hundreds of big form reversals I can think of that come from that type of races. A lot of times though - the big form reversal only happens if horses can comfortably relax early on next time out.

It's the exact opposite in slow paced races. You want to be a wide presser in those type of races...especially with inferior horses inside of you. You have complete and utter control of the race from there.

That's why I don't even bother watching a race until I feel comfortable that I can gauge the pace. The same wide pressing position that can be an absolute dream spot in a slow paced race - is a horrid spot in a fast paced race.

What's interesting about this years Fountain of Youth is that there are mixed signals on how fast the pace actually was - it was 30 points faster than the alw pace - but very oddly it graded out a lot slower than I expected on my par chart. And even the final time figure has question marks. It looks cut and dry in the 106-to-109 range to me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A typically useless jockey and trainer quote. I think the R Heat Lightning comparison he makes was because she was 4 wide chasing a fast pace in her prior start. He wasn't on Devil May Care last year for her 3yo debut at FG - I think Castellano was - but that was the same type of thing. DMC chased a very fast pace four wide through the 1st turn - and when she couldn't go with inside horse on the far turn she hit the reset button and fired on the airbreaks... I think she was like 5th by 12 in that race.

Mine That Bird was 4th or 5th in the Sunland Derby when wide and chasing a very fast pace. Sure, his Derby was a fluke - but he just missed in the Preakness - and a lot of people thought he was best in the Belmont.

Archarcharch was hung wide against a fast pace in the Smarty Jones when he faded. There's hundreds of big form reversals I can think of that come from that type of races. A lot of times though - the big form reversal only happens if horses can comfortably relax early on next time out.

It's the exact opposite in slow paced races. You want to be a wide presser in those type of races...especially with inferior horses inside of you. You have complete and utter control of the race from there.

That's why I don't even bother watching a race until I feel comfortable that I can gauge the pace. The same wide pressing position that can be an absolute dream spot in a slow paced race - is a horrid spot in a fast paced race.

What's interesting about this years Fountain of Youth is that there are mixed signals on how fast the pace actually was - it was 30 points faster than the alw pace - but very oddly it graded out a lot slower than I expected on my par chart. And even the final time figure has question marks. It looks cut and dry in the 106-to-109 range to me.

probably. i put that up because there had been posts saying the horse should drop off the trail; a ludicrous suggestion at this point. besides, i was told on here before that bill mott of course knows best, so he'll wait to see after another race what the horse can accomplish. but any horse with a bit of talent and ability will be kept on the trail.
it's a true dichotomy here-people complain when a horse doesn't run, then they complain when he does. people say 'we understand a horse can lose', and then when one does, he sucks. yeah, that's understanding...

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

probably. i put that up because there had been posts saying the horse should drop off the trail; a ludicrous suggestion at this point. besides, i was told on here before that bill mott of course knows best, so he'll wait to see after another race what the horse can accomplish. but any horse with a bit of talent and ability will be kept on the trail.
it's a true dichotomy here-people complain when a horse doesn't run, then they complain when he does. people say 'we understand a horse can lose', and then when one does, he sucks. yeah, that's understanding...

Seriously, I admitted I overreacted to the race by saying that he should be pulled from the trail (but you ignored that and decided to start something this morning for no reason). Why my one comment is such a big deal is beyond me. THAS ran terribly, but if you don't think so, then go pick him for the Florida Derby......or go read Andy's comments since you presumably take him seriously. What does Mott have to do with this anyway? Did you see anyone criticizing his preparation of the horse? I didn't - and I've been posting all along that I had no problem with his race schedule for the colt. It's not on him that his horse ran badly. It's one thing to lose, as probably Mott expected, it's another to run an awful race, which is what THAS did. He didn't show anything at all.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Seriously, I admitted I overreacted to the race by saying that he should be pulled from the trail (but you ignored that and decided to start something this morning for no reason). Why my one comment is such a big deal is beyond me. THAS ran terribly, but if you don't think so, then go pick him for the Florida Derby......or go read Andy's comments since you presumably take him seriously. What does Mott have to do with this anyway? Did you see anyone criticizing his preparation of the horse? I didn't - and I've been posting all along that I had no problem with his race schedule for the colt. It's not on him that his horse ran badly. It's one thing to lose, as probably Mott expected, it's another to run an awful race, which is what THAS did. He didn't show anything at all.

i'm not quite sure why you think my post was a specific attack on you. my point was a general one; these reactions occur fairly often, from a sizable segment of fans. if you wish to think it was pointed at you, and only you, that's your issue, not mine. i wasn't suggesting he was my pick for anything in future, my suggestion was that one race a career/season/ campaign does not make. we've all seen horses not lift a hoof one race, and then run lights out later. witness afleet alex in arkansas with an inexplicable bad run, and then almost winning the triple crown as one example. i have no idea as yet who my fla derby pick would be; i don't start making selections ahead of time for any race.
and what does mott have to do with it? i posted his comments after the race about his horse to show he has no intention of stopping. i thought some might be interested in his comments.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not quite sure why you think my post was a specific attack on you. my point was a general one; these reactions occur fairly often, from a sizable segment of fans. if you wish to think it was pointed at you, and only you, that's your issue, not mine. i wasn't suggesting he was my pick for anything in future, my suggestion was that one race a career/season/ campaign does not make. we've all seen horses not lift a hoof one race, and then run lights out later. witness afleet alex in arkansas with an inexplicable bad run, and then almost winning the triple crown as one example. i have no idea as yet who my fla derby pick would be; i don't start making selections ahead of time for any race.
and what does mott have to do with it? i posted his comments after the race about his horse to show he has no intention of stopping. i thought some might be interested in his comments.

I thought you directed your post to me because I was the one who suggested (immediately after a race which was incredibly disappointing to me) that Mott pull THAS from the trail. If you weren't, I apologize. In any case, regardless of what I think of the horse, he's going to the Florida Derby. I would be surprised if he ran well because he should have run better than he did yesterday (if I recall, AA had a fever in that bad race he ran)........and now I also question how far he wants to go. He's speedy and doesn't seem all that willing to rate; he was closer to the pace than I hoped he'd be. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but that wasn't the kind of race I expected from the colt at all.

[Danzig]

i think you're basing too much on one race, especially when the goal is a race in may. should he have run better? maybe, will he end up running poorly again? that's to be seen. but plenty of horses over the years have run up the track and then gone on to bigger and better things. birdstone, thunder gulch, charismatic who ran for a tag and won 2/3's of the triple crown. the list truly is endless.
of course, there's also a list of horses a mile long who showed promise only to fade away; he could just as easily be one of those. my only point is that it's too soon to write him off. these horses are obviously still learning and developing.

i will offer one suggestion to you tho-don't get hopeful mainly due to a horses pedigree. it's all well and good to be a fan of a horse line, but don't think bloodlines alone will be enough. plenty of good horseflesh that doesn't pan out. base your picks and hopes on ability; take any biases out of the equation. horses don't run faster because you have high hopes for them.

such a delicate flower. be gentle. a googly!