Overlays that got away??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kingturf

*******...enough! You don't know me and I think you're a jerk.

But I so want to get to know you.

[hi_im_god]

banks hill 6-1 in the 2001 bc fm turf. i think the chief knock was she had never run 10f. but she had won running uphill at 9f. she won by open lengths.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Shouldn't an overlay that got away be a horse that you just missed with at a fat price?

I wasn't born at the time - but this horse whos pp's I looked at yesterday kind of cries out for a thread like this ...



Horse wins an alw race at 5/2 at Santa Anita by 20 lengths - and is 48/1 in the San Felipe and just misses before confirming form at a shorter price in the SA Derby next out.

I don't think I ever recall seeing an alw race at Santa Anita won by 20 lengths before ... though - it was only a six horse field and over a sloppy track.

[Dunbar]

My worst "overlay that got away" was in the 2006 Ky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1. It was NOT Barbaro at 19-1; I wasn't at all tuned into Barbaro at that point. What I missed was "All Others" at 3-1, which I considered a huge overlay. On Saturday night the odds were sitting at 6-5, and I stopped paying attention. When I read that it closed at 3-1, I was shocked. Nevermind that it turned out to be a losing bet, I still think it was my worst "overlay that got away". (as DrugS pointed out, there is more than one way to interpret that title.) Ever since that blunder, I pay attention until the close of future pool betting.

Here are the final odds from that 2006 Pool:

A.P. Warrior 31.2
Achilles of Troy 26.2
Barbaro 19.1
Barbican 18.4
Blazing Rate 101.3
Bluegrass Cat 15.7
Bob and John 31.7
Brother Derek 16.5
Cause to Believe 59.3
Doctor Decherd 68.6
First Samurai 7.9
Flashy Bull 45.4
Half Ours 33.1
Henny Hughes 27.7
High Cotton 62.6
Itsallboutthechase 48.2
Keyed Entry 53.8
Lawyer Ron 21
Point Determined 18.9
Private Vow 14.3
Sorcerer's Stone 45.5
Stevie Wonderboy 8.2
Your Tent Or Mine 21.9
All Other 3YO's 3

My second-worst missed overlay was Volponi in 2002. In my line I had Volponi at 28-1 and posted elsewhere that I would bet him at 35-1 or more. Somehow I missed Volponi's 43-1 odds in all the excitement of getting my losing bets down on Milwaukee Brew and Macho Uno.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the final odds from that 2006 Pool:

A.P. Warrior 31.2
Achilles of Troy 26.2
Barbaro 19.1
Barbican 18.4
Blazing Rate 101.3
Bluegrass Cat 15.7
Bob and John 31.7
Brother Derek 16.5
Cause to Believe 59.3
Doctor Decherd 68.6
First Samurai 7.9
Flashy Bull 45.4
Half Ours 33.1
Henny Hughes 27.7
High Cotton 62.6
Itsallboutthechase 48.2
Keyed Entry 53.8
Lawyer Ron 21
Point Determined 18.9
Private Vow 14.3
Sorcerer's Stone 45.5
Stevie Wonderboy 8.2
Your Tent Or Mine 21.9

Some of those are CLASSIC. Thanks for putting them up.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But I so want to get to know you.

HAHA be nice to the poor guy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

All of the best overlays I ever got came in betting exchanges. I remember a few cases of horses I would have bet at their track odds of like 7/1 or 8/1 and I was able to secure as high as 20/1 or 25/1 for $20 or $30 or so... a lot of them didn't win - but it's still a big overlay.

Unless you're talking about debuters - To get big overlaid mutuals in the betting pools - you need one or two severely overbet short-priced horses. In the betting exchange - all it really can take is one guy to have a psycho strong opinion against a horse. The opposite can happen to ... I've seen horses win at 2/1 at the track who were even money or 6/5 in trading with good liquidity on both sides.