Track Bias thread

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Doug--Welsch is one of the best. But, how many people do you think could really recognize a track bias when they see one? I think the info would be very useful but am doubtful that many know how to watch races well enough to detect a real bias.

Well - it can be a tricky subject.

I've had many disagreements about a bias a on specific day with guys I consider to be extremely competent and some very sharp at watching races. So, even among people with the skill to detect bias ... there's not always going to be a strong consensus.

There are obvious days ... like some on the dirt at old Keeneland ... where pretty much anyone here who isn't a certified tard or named PG 1985 could have detected a rail bias.

[MISTERGEE]

still a great idea, and at least the heads up is something anyone can double check for themselves

[VOL JACK]

Welsch always thinks there is a bias.
I don't see it.

He also thinks outside closers at GP are at an advantage.
All the races I watch there...if they out side the two path and more than two off the lead at the top of the stretch, they have no shot.

[Kasept]

Going to move this to the TRIP NOTES ROOM but will leave the re-direct up.

On the bias front, I started a thread about the AQU gold rail from Wednesday 2/9 (Link to charts)... Horses from those races should start coming back to run over the next 7-21 days. Andy and Eric covered these races in TRIPS & TRAPS. I'll put up a link to it.

T&T-2/17 (Part I)

[JJP]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Welsch always thinks there is a bias.
I don't see it.

He also thinks outside closers at GP are at an advantage.
All the races I watch there...if they out side the two path and more than two off the lead at the top of the stretch, they have no shot.

I agree. I think there's going to be some good betbacks from GP when they go to other tracks. A perfect example was Saturday, a horse named Simbamaya (sp?) who had the far outside post, sat not too far off the pace and made a big wide move on the turn and finally got the lead after the turn for home. But one of the horses he passed, and who saved more ground, came back toward his inside and put him away by open lengths. Seems like we see a lot of inside speeds get passed only to have them come back and prevail.

[hockey2315]

Simbamangu. . . He'll be 3-5 next out.