Your Personal Derby Dozen

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

1. To Honor and Serve- Projects to hold together better then the big horse. Him and Uncle Mo are far better then anyone else at this point. Ill put this guy at #1 because he is already fast enough, I'm sure he will get the distance and I have confidence Mott will keep him together and map out the correct path to Kentucky. The only problem I have with this guy is who will the jockey be? I wont be happy if Mott puts Lezcano or Maragh on him. Hopefully its Gomez, but who knows.

2. Uncle Mo- The big horse, clearly. Everything he has done has been right, but you can also say that about #1 on this list. The distance is not really any problem with me for him, and its funny how some people knock him for that. I really have no good reason for him not to be #1. There is nothing wrong with him. I just like THAS a bit better moving forward.

3. Dialed In- His Holy Bull performance was huge. He was tons the best and did it the right way. He is in that next group of 5-9 horses though. He is no where near the top 2 at this point. The top 2 were running Derby type figures as 2 yr olds. Back to this guy, he has every right to improve and is in great hands. Very early on this Derby appears to be loaded with need the lead, speed and very good tactical speed types, and that could play into Dialed In's hands.

4. Soldat- I know it was over a sloppy track but this horse exploded. Everyone says he is a turf horse, but his best race ever was going 9f on dirt. I talked to 3 people before that allowance race, everyone of them loved Angel Penna's horse. Well Soldat laughed at that horse turning for home and absolutely demolished him. I think he is the real deal on dirt, in the best looking 3yr crop since Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin battled it out.

5. The Factor- This ranking is based on potential only. Anyone who likes him should tune into Santa Anita race 6 on Thursday. A loaded looking MSW going 8.5f on the main track. The 2-3 finishers from The Factors freaky maiden win return, and they both look to be very tough in that spot. He will have to rate and prove he can, but all time great trainer Bob Baffert can get him there.

6. Heron Lake- Broke his maiden like a good thing first time out, and beat a field that was supposed to be pretty good going in. This is another selection based on potential, but this is clearly Zitos #2 and he has never been shy with getting multiple horses into the Derby starting gate. Really excited to see this guy run back, it has to come soon though.

7. Jaycito- Had a nightmare run in the Breeders Cup Juvy. Next time he goes will be first time for new trainer Bob Baffert. He needs to improve, but he gives every indication he wants to run all day. At this point I like him better then anything I have seen out west.... Tapizar, Comma To The Top etc....

8. Stay Thirsty- He needs to come back running for me to still have confidence in him. I still like the pedigree and the connections and it appears he will have a soft path to the Derby for an owner who wants to get him there. The 3 defeats he has had have come at the hands of 3 very good horses, and he is not one of the babies who freaked out at 2. Leaving me to believe he can still improve a lot.

9. Santiva- 3 different trainers for him so far. Put in a good run last out to beat an overrated favorite. He needs to improve a lot to be competitive with the top horses of this crop.

10. Smash- Still one of the most impressive maiden winners I have seen. He needs to get back on the work tab very soon or he is off this list. The raw talent is here, its a shame there are some issues.

11. Machen- Really not sure what to make of this guy. My gut feeling tells me he will be really good, but Im still not sure if thats going to be good enough. A horse he beat in his MSW win came back to win fairly easily yesterday, Sour.
12. Soverign Default- He is likely a sprinter/miler, but I loved his comeback. Forced to run hard every step of the way of off a layoff while buried inside on the rail. I thought he clearly ran better then the winner, who is also likely OK.

One time with this son of Lemon Drop Kid!!!!

Sour.pdf

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by asudevil

One time with this son of Lemon Drop Kid!!!!

Attachment 1671

LOL....
Good Luck.

[Thunder Gulch]

1. Uncle Mo
2. Uncle Mo's shadow
3. To Honor and Serve
4. Tapizir
5. Boys at Toscanova

Everyone else has a lot to show me before I delve too deeply. I'm not buying Soldat's slop run, Factor's maiden race, or Dialed In's prospects of only having 4 starts (looked green to me). "Boys" has been totally dismissed on distance limitations, and yes he may not get 10, but this is a really fast colt who was 6 lengths clear of the mortals in the BC.

[RockHardTen1985]

[quote=Thunder Gulch;747861]1. Uncle Mo
2. Uncle Mo's shadow
3. To Honor and Serve
4. Tapizir
5. Boys at Toscanova

Everyone else has a lot to show me before I delve too deeply. I'm not buying Soldat's slop run, Factor's maiden race, or Dialed In's prospects of only having 4 starts (looked green to me). "Boys" has been totally dismissed on distance limitations, and yes he may not get 10, but this is a really fast colt who was 6 lengths clear of the mortals in the BC.[/QUOTE

Boys not being ready for a race he has been pointed to since November does not bother you?

[Thunder Gulch]

[quote=RockHardTen1985;747863]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

1. Uncle Mo
2. Uncle Mo's shadow
3. To Honor and Serve
4. Tapizir
5. Boys at Toscanova

Everyone else has a lot to show me before I delve too deeply. I'm not buying Soldat's slop run, Factor's maiden race, or Dialed In's prospects of only having 4 starts (looked green to me). "Boys" has been totally dismissed on distance limitations, and yes he may not get 10, but this is a really fast colt who was 6 lengths clear of the mortals in the BC.[/QUOTE

Boys not being ready for a race he has been pointed to since November does not bother you?

That's why he's not #2, but being fast enough puts him out in front of the ones who haven't been that fast yet.