The Cops are coming after me...

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

IMO, only 6% of the time will he get such an easy trip to capitalize on....he got that ideal, lucky, beneficial trip to give him the BEST chance to win and he still got beat by better horses who had way worse journeys than him....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

First of all, what was so lucky and beneficial about his trip. he is a frontrunner, they sort of make their own trips. It's not like there weren't other speeds in the race, they didn't go. And what was so bad about Scat's journey? You said way worse, so what exactly was so way worse about his trip? Nobiz, yeah he had a way worse trip, but I saw Scat as having a pretty clean trip.

Scat had to make a far wider run than NLS and Pegasus Wind, both......Pegasus Wind got away with an easy lead while hugging the rail and fractions of 24 and change and almost 48 seconds for his half mile, which is RIDICULOUSLY slow for good horses going around one turn. Yet, he still allowed horses with wider and less advantageous trips to run him over late....I'm not impressed when a horse is given a race and cannot capitalize to even run in the Exacta....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Oh okay, someone had better tell Lukas that you aren't impressed. maybe he'll rethink entering in the Juvy.

God couldn't tell Lukas not to run his horses where they don't belong...that is a common practice from that barn....its all about winning the biggest races at ANY cost....