12/18: Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Hollywood (Late P4's)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Pretty good looking group of maidens..

Most Likely: #2 Iscar 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Pretend and Extend 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Bombaguia 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Crossed the Line 5-1 WON ($9.90)


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Intriguing starter allowance..

Best Value: #3 Sensationalist 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Black Pen 5-2 WON ($2.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Hillswick 7-2 4th


8th: 52nd Gravesend, 3+, 6f (DD)

Considering lack of graded status and modest purse, this is some terrific edition of the old Gravesend. Going to stand against the Pletcher/Repole entry that will be overly short and potentially hampered by Driven by Success' inside draw..

Most Likely: #3 Endless Circle 2-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
Best Value: #2 Ravalo 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 9-5 WON/2nd ($5.00)


9th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 She's My Image 4-1 11th
Best Value: #3 Raffie's Babe 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Galaxy Jet 8-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Lucky Leslie 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6-7
7: 3-8-9
8: 1-2-3
9: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = $72



FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #4 High Quality 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Forest Uproar 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Caminadora 12-1 -
Super Add: #12 Going to the Sun 8-1 2nd (at 17-1!)


8th: 46th Tenacious H., 3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

As much as I like Thornbury and Mad Flatter, they feel like very vulnerable fave here, especially with a fair amount of front end interested parties signed on..

Best Value: #5 Atoned 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Mad Flatter 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Dubious Miss 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Z Humor 3-1 2nd


9th: 5th Bonapaw, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, Super)

The turf sprint stake is frequently an afterthought on this type of card, but the presence of BC runner-up Central City, 3 well meant Margolis players and last year's defending champ make Bonapaw 2010 notable..

Best Value: #3 Cool Bullet 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Central City 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #1e Margolis-Klein entry 7-2 WON/2nd ($7.40)
Super Add: #10 Grand Traverse 8-1 8th


10th: 60th Sugar Bowl, 2yo, 6f (P3, Super)

Devastated by SCR's as field trims from 7 to 4..

Most Likely: #2 Joe Hollywood 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Archarcharch 6-1 WON ($4.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-7-11-12
8: 1-5-6-7
9: 1-3-6-10
10: 2-7

4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Sweet and Jazzy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Forty Dates 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Popular Date 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Suances de Espana 4-1 3rd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Next Best: #6 Yankee Station 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Hunch 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #1 Streakin Mohican 3-1 2nd


9th: 30th Hollywood Futurity (G1), 8.5f (DD, Super)

Excellent edition of this last important juvenile event of the year with an unusually high number of participants coming in well seasoned (6 of 10 with 5 starts or more)..

Best Value: #5 High Level Jeff 8-1: Better acclimated now; Zippy drills.. DNF
Next Best: #2 J P's Gusto 5-1: Toss frustrating BC try; Snaps back.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Gourmet Dinner 5-1: Assume Standridge sees G1 stripe.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Slammer Time 20-1: 27f of work since Cal Cup score.. 7th


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Marino's Promise 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dislittleliteomine 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Pay for Play 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Irridescent Red 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Hi-5 Play: #2 Really Elegant 20-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6-8
8: 4-5/SCR-6
9: 2-3-4-5-7
10: 3-5

5x2x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve

[RockHardTen1985]

Good Luck today Steve.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Good Luck today Steve.

Thx Joe! U2..

[jms62]

Steve how do you see the McNight? I think Rescue Squad runs down Precious Passion.

[VOL JACK]

Not Steve but, I like Simmard at a decent price in there.

I also think Memorial Maniac has a fighting chance to hit the board a huge price.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Steve how do you see the McNight? I think Rescue Squad runs down Precious Passion.

Hadn't looked at it since Thursday when Mike Welsch visited the other day but just went back to it now. As I told Mike, I was willing to give Precious Passion another chance, but boy, it sure doesn't look like he's the same horse he was. VJ has two nice price options in Simmard and Mem. Maniac... I'm a Steve Hobby/Telling fan, but 3-1 is a crazy underlay. Honestly? I don't feel like I have a good enough handle on the race to offer an opinion.

[jms62]

My top 3 in order are:

6-Rescue Squad
5-Bold Hawk
8-Simmard

I'll wind up betting Top 2 odds of the 3 to win.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hadn't looked at it since Thursday when Mike Welsch visited the other day but just went back to it now. As I told Mike, I was willing to give Precious Passion another chance, but boy, it sure doesn't look like he's the same horse he was. VJ has two nice price options in Simmard and Mem. Maniac... I'm a Steve Hobby/Telling fan, but 3-1 is a crazy underlay. Honestly? I don't feel like I have a good enough handle on the race to offer an opinion.

Musketeer announced as a late scratch here for those interested in Roger A's run in these long turf routes. Announced 5 minutes ago...

[Kasept]

And now McKnight OFF turf... Rain pelting CRC...

KEEP TRACK LIVE WITH WELSCH AT CALDER: http://drf.com/blogs/calder-two-more-out-mcknight

SCR 1-5-6-7-9

11th (4:45) W. L. McKnight H. (G2)

2 Presious Passion Trujillo E Hartmann Mary 121 L 5-1
3 Memorial Maniac Lebron V Demeritte Larry 116 L 12-1
4 Prince Will I Am Castellano J J Nihei Michelle 117 L 10-1
8 Simmard Maragh R Attfield Roger L 115 L 8-1
10 Free Fighter Marquez C H Jr Block Chris M 116 L 12-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (10 cent minimum) Daily Double

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

FG SCR/CHG'S

Extensive SCR's in the Sugar Bowl..

Light rain in Nola but turf GOOD right now. Main track FAST.

HOL SCR/CHG'S

[jms62]

Originally Posted by jms62

My top 3 in order are:

6-Rescue Squad
5-Bold Hawk
8-Simmard

I'll wind up betting Top 2 odds of the 3 to win.

Off the Turf... El Paso

[Kasept]

Good luck rest of way team! Off to Toga and to see The Blaha's.. and Baby Blaha!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

My top 3 in order are:

6-Rescue Squad
5-Bold Hawk
8-Simmard

I'll wind up betting Top 2 odds of the 3 to win.

I really love this strategy, long term you will be rich.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I really love this strategy, long term you will be rich.

Rich? Hardly but a 32% win rate and an ROI of 14% is better than most.. I just have to lay off the crack cocaine that is the Pick-4.