Ruffian - maybe the greatest debut of all-time

[classhandicapper]

Not to diminish Ruffian as a 2YO (obviously freakishly good) , but it's not that unusual for 2YO fillies to be ahead of 2YO colts in their physical development (especially sprinting). I think that's something that has to be considered when evaluating them relative to colts based on the standards we are used to among older horses.

If the typical gap between MATURE males and females is typically 8 Beyer points (+ or - a little), it tends to be less among 2YO sprinters.

Had she remained sound and continued racing, I think she would have been a lot like RA in that we would have seen her best at 3.

I don't have much of an issue with the fluctuation of her figures. IMO, the race development, pace, figure accuracy, and reserve racing energy/stamina issues are too complex to take any one figure too literally as a measure of ability or even performance.

Finally, I don't trust speed figures in races where the winning margin was huge no matter who makes them, including me (and I certainly respect DrugS). The exact beaten length time translation formula used for the PPs is not known by anyone other than Equibase. All the major speed figure makers are using a slightly different beaten length chart (TG and RAGs is different than Beyer, CJ is different from both etc..).

So if you project a figure for a winner based on the well beaten horses, depending on which beaten length chart you use you will get a different figure. Even worse, typically, big winners are dominant speed types. Part of the reason they win by so many lengths is that the pace they set is well within their own range, but outside the range of the inferior stalkers and chasers. So the margin of victory gets exaggerated by the fact that the competition was exhausted chasing the winner. It's hard to determine how much of the large margin is the winner running fast and how much is the losers running slower than usual.

IMHO, Beyer himself (and most other figure makers) don't understand this phenomenon well enough and tend to inflate the figures of big winners. IMHO, he inflated a couple of Rachel's figures by a few points that way on days when track speed was not stable.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Not to diminish Ruffian as a 2YO (obviously freakishly good) , but it's not that unusual for 2YO fillies to be ahead of 2YO colts in their physical development (especially sprinting). I think that's something that has to be considered when evaluating them relative to colts based on the standards we are used to among older horses.

If the typical gap between MATURE males and females is typically 8 Beyer points (+ or - a little), it tends to be less among 2YO sprinters.

Had she remained sound and continued racing, I think she would have been a lot like RA in that we would have seen her best at 3.

Obviously fillies develop earlier than colts. You watch them drill at the 2yo sales in Feb through June - and typically the better females are a little more impressive than the better males collectively.

In general - males can handle tough campaigns and huge individual performances better than females. There have been A LOT of great performances by females that have been followed by injury and long layoff.

Melair, Mossflower, La Femmen, Sharp Cat almost died after her 119 Beyer and never raced again, Akinemod won a Grade 2 by 18 lengths with a 120 Beyer for her 6th straight win, she didn't race again for over a year and a half was "Eased, DNF" in her return race. Blushing K.D, Ski Goggle, etc.

That was one thing Zenyatta always had going for her, her performances were so mediocre and relatively slow that they were easy to come back from. Look at her after those California wins - she comes prancing back looking like she wasn't even in a horse race. After the BC Classic - she came back hot and dirty - looking so tired that if you sprayed her with a hose you might knock her over. Those are the type of efforts horses don't always come back from - especially females.

[randallscott35]

I saw Blushing KD in a race at Monmouth. OMG was she fast.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That was one thing Zenyatta always had going for her, her performances were so mediocre and relatively slow that they were easy to come back from. Look at her after those California wins - she comes prancing back looking like she wasn't even in a horse race. After the BC Classic - she came back hot and dirty - looking so tired that if you sprayed her with a hose you might knock her over. Those are the type of efforts horses don't always come back from - especially females.

That's probably the single most interesting thing said on here about Zenyatta.

Of course, all the ZT'ers (Zenyattards) out there will tell you she was tired because she nearly fell down when that horse crashed into her, plus she was tied up from being in the cold.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In terms of how Ruffian's 3yo stakes figures relate to other great 3yo fillies:

The best 3yo filly of the 90's - Go For Wand's last five starts before the BC Distaff breakdown:

Beldame - 117
Maskette - 105
Alabama - 111
Test - 114
Mother Goose - 104


Rachel Alexandra at age 3:




Silverbulletday's entrie career - like Rachel Alexandra, she was a MUCH maligned 4yo - but really all she did was tail off from a tough campaign loaded with great performances late in her 3yo season. At age 4, she was good and fast again - but just didn't develop from her 3yo season.




Another nice 3yo filly season was Dance Smartly - she was a perfect 8-for-8. She swept the Canadian Triple Crown against the males - won the Molson Million under a hand ride over Eclipse champion 2yo male Fly So Free. Capped off her perfect season with a BC Distaff win. Like RA and SBD - she also didn't develop at age 4 and was much maligned.

[randallscott35]

Can you post Blushing KD's career

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Monmouth Oaks was the last race before she died.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That was one thing Zenyatta always had going for her, her performances were so mediocre and relatively slow that they were easy to come back from. Look at her after those California wins - she comes prancing back looking like she wasn't even in a horse race. After the BC Classic - she came back hot and dirty - looking so tired that if you sprayed her with a hose you might knock her over. Those are the type of efforts horses don't always come back from - especially females.

We will have to agree to disagree on the details of this while agreeing on the major point being made.

I don't think her performances were mediocre. They were also great, but they were different because of the nature of the surface and the details of her races.

I think the quality of horses in front of her were sometimes vastly inferior (partly because she was so great) and also hell bent on slowing down the pace relative to their own norms because they knew that was the only chance they had to beat her.

As a result of those race developments, it would often be somewhere between difficult and impossible for any horse that ever lived to run fast in totality (especially for her given her deep closing style). As a result she only ran really really fast for the last 2-4 furlongs while making her typical wide sweep and then went out extremely well after the wire with plenty of stamina in reserve.

That is partly the nature of both turf and synthetic racing and probably why turf horses also seem to hold their form better.

Plus, they specifically designed a well spaced campaign with a limited number of taxing races so she'd hold her form until the end of the year and peak around BC time instead of the spring/summer.

[Linny]

The horses Z faced were not very good. They were not just "inferior beside the awesomeness that was Zenyatta." They were nearly universally slow. Especially in 2010. If they were so good, why were none in the Distaff? Clearly if you have a very good mare who just keeps being beaten by a sensation, don't you take the chance to run for $2m against just mares where the "sensation" is not going to be there?
I know St Trinians was sidelined but clearly the conections of Rinterval, Taptam, Dance to My Tune etc would have gone to the BC if they thought they had a decent horse. Last year, Anabaa's Creation, Briecat, Dawn After Dawn all passed on a Zenyatta-free Distaff as well. Why? Because they were not very good.