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#1
11-12-2010, 06:49 AM
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11/12: Aqueduct ($415k C/O)
No ATR today as I take the morning off and head to Aqueduct for today's 3rd which features the return of Dee Tee's Lloydobler. The visit has the added benefit of the enormous 4 day P6 carryover which swelled to $415k+ after another afternoon of tricky results. This sextet is no bargain either, with full fields aplenty and three turf routes to complicate ticket-building. Hope everyone tries to put in at least a small play. My thoughts with 2 budget approaches below...
AQUEDUCT PRE-SCRATCHES 3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Pawley's Porch 2-1 3RD Next Best: #3 Lloydobler 7-2 5TH Exotics Use: #6 Beckon 5-1 WON ($9.60) 4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 John Wyatt 3-1 7TH Best Value: #4 Scotchmallow 12-1 12TH Next Best: #3 Gamblin Fever 8-1 9TH Super Add: #12 Pagan Ruler 15-1 WON ($35.60) 5th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Great Press 8-5 3RD Best Value: #3 Jimmy's Sweetheart 5-1 WON ($8.80) Next Best: #9 Lucky Leslie 4-1 2ND Super Add: #10 Money Magnet 10-1 7TH 6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Ms Stilleto 6-1 9TH Next Best: #7 Frivolous Buck 7-2 WON ($8.50) Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Cagey Girl 4-1 6TH Super Add: #2 Tutti Va Bene 12-1 2ND 7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Kid Tornado 5-2 4TH Next Best: #1 Top It 3-1 WON ($6.90) Exotics Use: #5 Splendid Behavior 7-2 5TH Super Add: #8 Active Trader 8-1 8TH 8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super) 8-5 fave #4 Denomination is a nice filly, and Clement is certainly capable off the layoff. But she might need one and there are a few here within hailing distance, so go beyond a single if you can afford it.. Most Likely: #4 Denomination 8-5 4TH Best Value: #8 Quedabra Shiner 6-1 WON ($12.60) Next Best: #9 Darjeeling 5-1 3RD Super Add: #7 Exclusive Scheme 4-1 2ND 9th: CLM, 3+, 1m (Super) As much as $2,000,000 on the line and your P6 play may come down to a hatful of $7.5k claimers... Yikes! Most Likely: #1 No Rhyme Or Reason 4-1 4TH Next Best: #8 Full N Sassy 7-2 WON ($6.90) #Exotics Use: #6 SCR Super Add: #10 Good Will 8-1 7TH <$200 P6 Play: 4: 1 [4] 5: 4 6: 1-6-7 7: 1-2-5 8: 4 9: 1-8 [6-10] Budget play: 1x1x3x3x1x2 = 18 x $2 = $36 Full play: 2x1x3x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-6-7 7: 1-2-5 8: 4-8 9: 1-6-8-10 3x3x2x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (7 WITH 1 WITH 8 WITH 2/3/5/6/8/13) Paid $297.50 X 2 = $595.00 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 11-12-2010 at 03:53 PM. 
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#3
11-12-2010, 08:50 AM
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#4
11-12-2010, 10:42 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
11-12-2010, 05:02 PM
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Nice job today Steve, congrats on the late quad.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#6
11-12-2010, 06:54 PM
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So go all the first two legs and top two in the last 4. $384 ticket if I'm not mistaken.
Easier said than done but it was there for any DT'er. Fantastic job, Steve.
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#7
11-12-2010, 06:58 PM
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Way to go Steve.
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#8
11-13-2010, 05:06 AM
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Thanks! Took me a couple days to get the feel back for NY after almost 3 weeks focused on Cup, but I had a much better look Friday than Wed/Thurs and was pleased to point people in the right direction on a day like that. Was a nice way to end afternoon after getting to AQU late for Lloyd's race... One lesson about the C/O was that when they get that big, the heavier investment (or group bet approach) is worthwhile. I put in a very modest play ($64) to at least have a go, but a full frontal attack with main/backup tickets on a serious budget would have had a real chance at success for the $135k. Hope everybody did well!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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