Perhaps the best female to race in the last 5 years?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and here i figured the distaffers didn't get a lot of wins vs boys because there aren't that many attempts made here. now, overseas, it's far more common..and it seems there are far more celebrated females because of that. goldikova isn't considered special because once a year she ventures a start vs males-unlike other mares who are allowed to be brave once a year. goldikova, ouija board, sunline, makybe diva, etc will be fondly remembered because they repeatedly took on the best in open races, paying their owners and bettors well for taking the chance. before freddy head made history with his three-peating filly, he won twice as a rider on miesque, another great mare who wasn't treated like a hothouse flower.

Danzig,

I am sure you understand that turf and dirt races develop differently.

Turf paces tend to be a lot slower and put a premium on late speed. That tends to bring the horses together because they often don't do any serious and demanding running until the final few furlongs.

As a result of this development issue, the gap between fillies/mares and males is smaller on turf than it is on dirt where the very best horses often run hard from start to finish, exhaust, and put away their inferior rivals.

The gap between the average winning speed figure for males and females on turf tends to be narrower all the way down the class spectrum than it is on dirt further providing objective evidence for what we observe on the track.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Danzig,

I am sure you understand that turf and dirt races develop differently.

Turf paces tend to be a lot slower and put a premium on late speed. That tends to bring the horses together because they often don't do any serious and demanding running until the final few furlongs.

As a result of this development issue, the gap between fillies/mares and males is smaller on turf than it is on dirt where the very best horses often run hard from start to finish, exhaust, and put away their inferior rivals.

The gap between the average winning speed figure for males and females on turf tends to be narrower all the way down the class spectrum than it is on dirt further providing objective evidence for what we observe on the track.

Wow, in less than 24 hours, you've bested The Bid's all time stupidest Derby Trail post!

Jesus, what the hell is wrong with me? I was warned in a PM not to engage you in a dialog of any sort, that we'd all be sorry.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Wow, in less than 24 hours, you've bested The Bid's all time stupidest Derby Trail post!

Jesus, what the hell is wrong with me? I was warned in a PM not to engage you in a dialog of any sort, that we'd all be sorry.

It's clear you have no intention of having a serious conversation or learning anything about the gaps between fillies/mares and colts on various surfaces or at various stages in their development. But perhaps some others will appreciate it.

It's more complex than this, but here's a start.

Here are the Beyer Pars for each of the relevant BC races.

Juvenile Colts - 99
Juvevile Fillies - 95

Turf Fillies - 107
Turf Colts -112
Turf Colts Mile - 111

Ladies Classic - 108
BC Classic - 117
Sprint - 113

2YO Filly Turf - 86
2YO Colt Turf - 88

Notice how the gap between the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Colts on dirt is only 4 points and the gap between the Ladies Classic and BC Classic is the more typical 9 point spread we usually see between fully developed colts and fillies at various classes.

That's partially because colts tend to develop a little later. That in turn makes it a tad easier for top notch early developing fillies like Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches etc.. to be competitive with 3YO colts in the spring and summer until the colts eventually move past them.

Does anyone actually believe that Rags to Riches would have continued developing like Curlin did after the spring/summer and won the Classic that year if she remained sound? Curlin developing further was practically a given.

It was no shock to me that the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra came as a 3YO and that she didn't develop after that. I predicted that was the most likely scenario repeatedly when the issue came up elsewhere.

Notice that the gap between turf classes is narrower than what we see on dirt also. That's true at virtually every class on turf top to bottom.

Notice that the gap between 2YO fillies and 2YO colts on turf is almost non existent because both physical development and race development issues are at work.

Notice that there is a 4 point difference between the Classic and the Sprint even though both are open to best older males.

These kinds of PARs help express the difficultly of moving from one class to another, but they are further supported by other research I have done and the results we see in real life.

The toughest class move is to go from racing against fillies and mares to racing against older horses at classic distances on dirt like Zenyatta just tried.

It is typically easier to make the sex move in the sprint.

It is typically easier to make the sex move on turf.

It is typically easier to make the sex move among younger horses.

It is typically easiest to make the sex move on turf among younger horses.

Perhaps now you will understand the results of races and why certain class moves are tried more often than others better.

[Smooth Operator]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's clear you have no intention of having a serious conversation or learning anything about the gaps between fillies/mares and colts on various surfaces or at various stages in their development. But perhaps some others will appreciate it.

It's more complex than this, but here's a start.

Here are the Beyer Pars for each of the relevant BC races.

Juvenile Colts - 99
Juvevile Fillies - 95

Turf Fillies - 107
Turf Colts -112
Turf Colts Mile - 111

Ladies Classic - 108
BC Classic - 117
Sprint - 113

2YO Filly Turf - 86
2YO Colt Turf - 88

Notice how the gap between the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Colts on dirt is only 4 points and the gap between the Ladies Classic and BC Classic is the more typical 9 point spread we usually see between fully developed colts and fillies at various classes.

That's partially because colts tend to develop a little later. That in turn makes it a tad easier for top notch early developing fillies like Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches etc.. to be competitive with 3YO colts in the spring and summer until the colts eventually move past them.

Does anyone actually believe that Rags to Riches would have continued developing like Curlin did after the spring/summer and won the Classic that year if she remained sound? Curlin developing further was practically a given.

It was no shock to me that the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra came as a 3YO and that she didn't develop after that. I predicted that was the most likely scenario repeatedly when the issue came up elsewhere.

Notice that the gap between turf classes is narrower than what we see on dirt also. That's true at virtually every class on turf top to bottom.

Notice that the gap between 2YO fillies and 2YO colts on turf is almost non existent because both physical development and race development issues are at work.

Notice that there is a 4 point difference between the Classic and the Sprint even though both are open to best older males.

These kinds of PARs help express the difficultly of moving from one class to another, but they are further supported by other research I have done and the results we see in real life.

The toughest class move is to go from racing against fillies and mares to racing against older horses at classic distances on dirt like Zenyatta just tried.

It is typically easier to make the sex move in the sprint.

It is typically easier to make the sex move on turf.

It is typically easier to make the sex move among younger horses.

It is typically easiest to make the sex move on turf among younger horses.

Perhaps now you will understand the results of races and why certain class moves are tried more often than others better.

Great post, CH

In addition to Indian boy, should be mandatory reading for a number of other (clueless) posters on this board…