Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Rightly So is in my bottom five if I ranked the entire field in the F&M Sprint.
Mike B is really losing it on his ML making skills....(See the fav in the Dirt Mile)

I also think Jessica is Back will run huge for Magical Marty.
Switch has a huge chance as well.

I respect Magical Marty as much as anybody else, but Jessica doesn't seem to run her best away from Florida. In her 4 starts since Marty claimed and re-shod her, she has run outside of Florida 4 times with an uninspiring 4 0 1 2 record. Granted, they were tough races, but this one is tougher.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I respect Magical Marty as much as anybody else, but Jessica doesn't seem to run her best away from Florida. In her 4 starts since Marty claimed and re-shod her, she has run outside of Florida 4 times with an uninspiring 4 0 1 2 record. Granted, they were tough races, but this one is tougher.

I thought her 7F performance over this track vs. RA in the Fleur de Lis would almost win this, and she ran fine last time - the bias was too much to overcome.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I thought her 7F performance over this track vs. RA in the Fleur de Lis would almost win this, and she ran fine last time - the bias was too much to overcome.

Agreed.

I just think she runs her best races in Florida. If not for her Princess Rooney where she came from off the pace looking great (albeit at a shorter distance), it looked like the her best races are going a bit longer with her on the lead.

I'm real interested in how the track is playing today before I nail down this race.

[hockey2315]

Wolfson's obviously much more dangerous down there, and that's definitely my main concern with her. It's not like he's totally incapable of running a horse successfully out of town, so I'm hoping she shows up. They supplemented her and are selling her right after, so they must be looking for a big performance.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wolfson's obviously much more dangerous down there, and that's definitely my main concern with her. It's not like he's totally incapable of running a horse successfully out of town, so I'm hoping she shows up. They supplemented her and are selling her right after, so they must be looking for a big performance.

I think he is better when he ships to KY vs shipping to NY. I don't have the numbers to back that up though.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I think he is better when he ships to KY vs shipping to NY. I don't have the numbers to back that up though.

I'll look that up in a bit and post.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I think he is better when he ships to KY vs shipping to NY. I don't have the numbers to back that up though.

Good call.

Past Five Years:

KY - 26% w/ a $4.21 ROI (obviously a bit skewed by Miesque's Approval)

NY - 12% w/ a $1.31 ROI