Breeders Cup A B X, Saturday only

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think UM is far and away the most likely winner. B@T had a dream trip last out, it has nothing to do with my love for Stay Thirsty. I feel he ran good enough, and yes I do think he should improve.

What circumstances are going to lead to a Stay Thirsty victory?

Is he going to go to the front, get the lead and stay? Doubtful with JP's Gusto and his own stablemate in the field.

Is he going to rate and finish? He had dead aim in his debut and didn't pass the eventual winner. Wishcasting that he is suddenly going to be able to rate is a horrible idea.

The respective trips of Stay Thirsty and Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful are not enough to bridge the gap between the two. Boys at Tosconova is a much better horse right now and I don't see how you could use Stay Thirsty over him.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What circumstances are going to lead to a Stay Thirsty victory?

Is he going to go to the front, get the lead and stay? Doubtful with JP's Gusto and his own stablemate in the field.

Is he going to rate and finish? He had dead aim in his debut and didn't pass the eventual winner. Wishcasting that he is suddenly going to be able to rate is a horrible idea.

The respective trips of Stay Thirsty and Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful are not enough to bridge the gap between the two. Boys at Tosconova is a much better horse right now and I don't see how you could use Stay Thirsty over him.

Rate. THe horse he could not pass in his debut is a freak, who was cranked up.

[ateamstupid]

My only slight concern with Boys at Tosconova is his ability to go two turns. Officer is a strict sprint influence, but there appears to be distance on the damside and he was super professional in the 7-furlong Hopeful off of just two 5-furlong races.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My only slight concern with Boys at Tosconova is his ability to go two turns. Officer is a strict sprint influence, but there appears to be distance on the damside and he was super professional in the 7-furlong Hopeful off of just two 5-furlong races.

While his dam won the majority of her $$ going long, there's not a lot of distance in that female family.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While his dam won the majority of her $$ going long, there's not a lot of distance in that female family.

Little Bonnet was a pretty nice horse going long, which is significant to me even if the 2nd and 3rd family's distance isn't there.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The respective trips of Stay Thirsty and Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful are not enough to bridge the gap between the two. Boys at Tosconova is a much better horse right now and I don't see how you could use Stay Thirsty over him.

I'll preface this comment by saying that I'm not enamored with Stay Thirsty in this spot. I thought the Iroquios/KY Jockey Club route would have been perfect for him.

However, if one were forced to make a case for him vis-a-vis Boys at Tosconova, in a race likely to feature a legit pace, Stay Thirsty's conformation and pedigree might provide a basis to think he could turn the tables in a two-turn 8.5F race where BAT has not run in nearly ten weeks. I can't imagine that Stay Thirsty will be up on the pace with his more celebrated stablemate (Uncle Mo) already there, and he's actually one of the few horses in the race that has a "classic"-type pedigree.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'll preface this comment by saying that I'm not enamored with Stay Thirsty in this spot. I thought the Iroquios/KY Jockey Club route would have been perfect for him.

However, if one were forced to make a case for him vis-a-vis Boys at Tosconova, in a race likely to feature a legit pace, Stay Thirsty's conformation and pedigree might provide a basis to think he could turn the tables in a two-turn 8.5F race where BAT has not run in nearly ten weeks. I can't imagine that Stay Thirsty will be up on the pace with his more celebrated stablemate (Uncle Mo) already there, and he's actually one of the few horses in the race that has a "classic"-type pedigree.

Stay Thirsty being kin to two slowpokes doesn't exactly make me think he's going to be a superstar going two turns.

The problem with your first sentence is that Stay Thirsty is coming off the same layoff. The biggest issue I have is that betting horses who you plan to do something that they haven't done before and really have shown no willingness to do is a terrible idea. Planning for Stay Thirsty rating and being effective is a dangerous exercise, and one for which I'd want more than 10-1.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Stay Thirsty being kin to two slowpokes doesn't exactly make me think he's going to be a superstar going two turns.

The problem with your first sentence is that Stay Thirsty is coming off the same layoff. The biggest issue I have is that betting horses who you plan to do something that they haven't done before and really have shown no willingness to do is a terrible idea. Planning for Stay Thirsty rating and being effective is a dangerous exercise, and one for which I'd want more than 10-1.

I prefer Boys at Tosconova of the two on Saturday, and I'd probably only rate him the third most likely winner of the race. I was simply making a case for why Stay Thirsty could turn the tables on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time that the stretchout from 7F to 8.5F led to a change in result.

Not that they were worldbeaters, but aside from Biondetti's female family, Superfly and Andromeda's Hero are probably the most talented horses in the immediate families of any of the other Juvenile starters.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I prefer Boys at Tosconova of the two on Saturday, and I'd probably only rate him the third most likely winner of the race. I was simply making a case for why Stay Thirsty could turn the tables on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time that the stretchout from 7F to 8.5F led to a change in result.

Not that they were worldbeaters, but aside from Biondetti's female family, Superfly and Andromeda's Hero are probably the most talented horses in the immediate families of any of the other Juvenile starters.

With all due respect, evoking the name Andromeda's Hero to defend ANY horse means that horse must have less than no merits.

[jms62]

Uncle Mo 7/5... Good luck with that

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

With all due respect, evoking the name Andromeda's Hero to defend ANY horse means that horse must have less than no merits.

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

Super Saver did have the extremely accomplished Hedge Fun as a full sibling - which is probably why he won the Derby... but where were the accomplished immediate family members in Mine That Bird's pedigree?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

I think it's irrelevent.