Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?

randallscott35 · #1 10-30-2010, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

ateamstupid · #2 10-30-2010, 07:45 PM

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

randallscott35 · #3 10-30-2010, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

ateamstupid · #4 10-30-2010, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

Really? If you have $40 winners in the other three legs and miss a Pick 4 because you left off a completely logical $6 horse, that won't irk you at all? I find that pretty hard to believe.

randallscott35 · #5 10-30-2010, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Really? If you have $40 winners in the other three legs and miss a Pick 4 because you left off a completely logical $6 horse, that won't irk you at all? I find that pretty hard to believe.

Believe it. I don't structure bets the same way many do.

ateamstupid · #6 10-30-2010, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Believe it. I don't structure bets the same way many do.

You're so mysterious. Pretty sure you're lying. You'd be looking for a ledge. How many times does one have three $40 winners in one Pick 4? A handful per lifetime? And throwing that away by excluding a $6 horse would eat you alive just like it would anyone else.

randallscott35 · #7 10-30-2010, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're so mysterious. Pretty sure you're lying. You'd be looking for a ledge. How many times does one have three $40 winners in one Pick 4? A handful per lifetime? And throwing that away by excluding a $6 horse would eat you alive just like it would anyone else.

40, try 70 or 90 dollar winners. It happens. No ledges. One thing I'm really good at is turning the page...No joke, its the truth.

RockHardTen1985 · #8 10-31-2010, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.

ateamstupid · #9 10-31-2010, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.

Which euros 'might' be better and why?

RockHardTen1985 · #10 10-31-2010, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Which euros 'might' be better and why?

Food Plain,Together and Theyskens Theory.

ateamstupid · #11 10-31-2010, 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Food Plain,Together and Theyskens Theory.

Theyskens' Theory is running in the JF, Flood Plain is nothing special and did you watch Together's Tattersalls race? Not the kind of performance I want to take a short price after. Tale Untold's the only Euro that interests me, but Winter Memories wins rather easily in my mind.

RockHardTen1985 · #12 10-31-2010, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Theyskens' Theory is running in the JF, Flood Plain is nothing special and did you watch Together's Tattersalls race? Not the kind of performance I want to take a short price after. Tale Untold's the only Euro that interests me, but Winter Memories wins rather easily in my mind.

Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

randallscott35 · #13 10-30-2010, 07:46 PM

I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.

RockHardTen1985 · #14 10-31-2010, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.

I dont think she will be 4-5. She wont fall under 1-1.

GPK · #15 10-30-2010, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

Fair enough. I think she can move forward, but that's just my opinion. If she turns out half as good as her dam, she will be pretty good.