Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?

ateamstupid · #1 10-30-2010, 08:32 PM

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

Scav · #2 10-30-2010, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

pweizer · #3 10-30-2010, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

randallscott35 · #4 10-30-2010, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

pweizer · #5 10-30-2010, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

randallscott35 · #6 10-30-2010, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

True about him but he settles for pieces far too often...I'm just passing it.

-BT- · #7 11-01-2010, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

i was thinking the same thing paul, i'm willing to toss the last 2 races if i can get a square price on this guy. Plus, as you mentioned, this is a step down from what he's been facing.

-bt-

cakes44 · #8 11-01-2010, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

i was thinking the same thing paul, i'm willing to toss the last 2 races if i can get a square price on this guy. Plus, as you mentioned, this is a step down from what he's been facing.

-bt-

Agreed that he stands out on class, but this 1 3/4 miles thing is a whole different animal. I'd like him more if someone like Sheppard was his trainer.

Princess Doreen · #9 11-01-2010, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

17 races in the past 2 years with nary a win - five 2nds and two 3rds, and he's the favorite to win the Marathon? I must be missing something.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #10 11-01-2010, 12:55 PM

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

NTamm1215 · #11 11-01-2010, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Careful out on that limb

hoovesupsideyourhead · #12 11-01-2010, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Careful out on that limb

ok zenyatta,goldikova

hoovesupsideyourhead · #13 11-01-2010, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ok zenyatta,goldikova

workforce was flattered in the arc, goldikova in my opinion will have to deal with paco boy with a better trip and priviso..

hockey2315 · #14 11-01-2010, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Can either of them be close to favorites?

RockHardTen1985 · #15 10-31-2010, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

ateamstupid · #16 10-31-2010, 01:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

Indian Charlie · #17 10-31-2010, 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

ateamstupid · #18 10-31-2010, 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

Indian Charlie · #19 10-31-2010, 03:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

He looked pretty relaxed though, which is a good indicator that he'll be able to rate, if needed.

ateamstupid · #20 10-31-2010, 03:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He looked pretty relaxed though, which is a good indicator that he'll be able to rate, if needed.

He appears to have a high cruising speed, and I have to look at the pace in the Juvy more closely, I'm just saying if he's under the gun from the start because he wants to go, it won't be Mountain Town trying to reel him in. He's got a boatload of talent, but at 6-5 or so, I think he's poor value.