11/6 (CD): Breeders' Cup Saturday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by HomerS

We will see. The odds on her last year were ridiculously low and that was on her home track. Because she won, the results focused players thought that made her a good bet, but her odds were crazy and think will be even more sothis time considering field is better, and will be on real dirt.

If she is anything under 5-1 (and I would think she will be 3-1 or lower) that pretty much guarantees overlays all around. Personally woulndnt touch her at anything under 12-1

Aren't all of the above reasons why she may not be bet as heavily this year ?

Last year the second and fourth choices were shipping in from europe and the third choice was the best 3YO who had never run on synthetics. There was no contender the public could embrace with confidence other than Zenyatta.
This year there are three strong contenders that people are more familiar with.
One of them consistently runs higher numbers than the field but does have some question marks concerning the added distance.

Another has defeated the first one, appears to have stamina based on his running style and will be at his track.

The third is an improving 3YO, proven on dirt, and the stablemate of a filly who gave the mare all she could handle at 1 1/16 miles.

There is a fourth horse who beat the second one at this distance but won't be taking his track with him.

It may be farfetched for me to believe that she won't be the favorite but choices 2,3,4 this year will be bet stronger than last year's group.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Aren't all of the above reasons why she may not be bet as heavily this year ?

Last year the second and fourth choices were shipping in from europe and the third choice was the best 3YO who had never run on synthetics. There was no contender the public could embrace with confidence other than Zenyatta.
This year there are three strong contenders that people are more familiar with.
One of them consistently runs higher numbers than the field but does have some question marks concerning the added distance.

Another has defeated the first one, appears to have stamina based on his running style and will be at his track.

The third is an improving 3YO, proven on dirt, and the stablemate of a filly who gave the mare all she could handle at 1 1/16 miles.

There is a fourth horse who beat the second one at this distance but won't be taking his track with him.

It may be farfetched for me to believe that she won't be the favorite but choices 2,3,4 this year will be bet stronger than last year's group.

Bob Baffert does not train Switch.

And does this mean that last year's field did suck?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Bob Baffert does not train Switch.

And does this mean that last year's field did suck?

My bad,thx for the correction about Switch.

I don't usually think any field "sucks".

It means that last year the choices bettors had other than her weren't as clear cut as they are this year. There had to be some apprehension about the (unfamiliar to US fans) Euro horses and who could wager with confidence on Summer Bird trying synthetic for the first time ? Familiarity and the proven quantity on this year's racing surface will make the wagering more competitive. More like the 2006 Derby.

[analyizethis]

Because many of the runners from 2009’s Classic have stayed in training maybe we can use hindsight to judge whether or not the field “sucked”.

So how did they do?

Zenyatta, of course, has started 5 times with 5 wins; Gio Ponti started 6 times with 2 wins and 3 seconds (fourth in the Dubai World Cup), Twice Over had 5 group one starts 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third, Summer Bird, Einstein and Colonel John all were retired, but except for the fact that Summer Bird was on the wrong surface I would content that they hardly sucked. Richard’s Kid had 2 grade 1 wins and a grade 2 win, Rip Van Winkle had 1 win and 3 seconds in 4 starts, Awesome Gem, Regal Ransom and Mine That Bird were the worse horses in the field and probably did suck and lastly Girolamo had a win in 2 starts this year and will be heavily bet in this year’s sprint although he was clearly in the wrong race in 2009.

So given that the race was on a synthetic surface (although not Zenyatta’s home track), I would conclude that the field didn’t “suck” but in fact was pretty good.

In 2010 on a dirt surface, I think that the field is better and the defending champion mare’s campaign this year really told us nothing about how she will perform that we didn’t already know last year. In terms of fair value her odds should be a little higher than the 2.8 – 1 (representing about 22.25% of the win pool) from last year. (By the way I believe that her odds were about right last year.) This year, although my handicapping isn’t complete, my guess is that she should be about 7 – 2 (or a little less than 20% of the win). As far as the rest I would say that Blame, Quality Road and Lookin at Lucky should all be between 4 – 1 and 6 – 1, Fly Down about 10 -1, Gio Ponti and Haynesfield 15 -1 and everybody else over 20 or 30 to one.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

Because many of the runners from 2009’s Classic have stayed in training maybe we can use hindsight to judge whether or not the field “sucked”.

So how did they do?

Zenyatta, of course, has started 5 times with 5 wins; Gio Ponti started 6 times with 2 wins and 3 seconds (fourth in the Dubai World Cup), Twice Over had 5 group one starts 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third, Summer Bird, Einstein and Colonel John all were retired, but except for the fact that Summer Bird was on the wrong surface I would content that they hardly sucked. Richard’s Kid had 2 grade 1 wins and a grade 2 win, Rip Van Winkle had 1 win and 3 seconds in 4 starts, Awesome Gem, Regal Ransom and Mine That Bird were the worse horses in the field and probably did suck and lastly Girolamo had a win in 2 starts this year and will be heavily bet in this year’s sprint although he was clearly in the wrong race in 2009.

So given that the race was on a synthetic surface (although not Zenyatta’s home track), I would conclude that the field didn’t “suck” but in fact was pretty good.

In 2010 on a dirt surface, I think that the field is better and the defending champion mare’s campaign this year really told us nothing about how she will perform that we didn’t already know last year. In terms of fair value her odds should be a little higher than the 2.8 – 1 (representing about 22.25% of the win pool) from last year. (By the way I believe that her odds were about right last year.) This year, although my handicapping isn’t complete, my guess is that she should be about 7 – 2 (or a little less than 20% of the win). As far as the rest I would say that Blame, Quality Road and Lookin at Lucky should all be between 4 – 1 and 6 – 1, Fly Down about 10 -1, Gio Ponti and Haynesfield 15 -1 and everybody else over 20 or 30 to one.

Did you analyizethis?