11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I won't cry when she beats me, as I like her, but she feels like one of the biggest bet againsts on the entire card ( outside of anyone the VI likes ).

Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

That's how you like to handicap...it's obvious looking at the PPs does you no good in terms of picking winners so why not try it without PPs. Maybe you would fare better by picking names? Saddle Colors? Pick the Grays?

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

That's how you like to handicap...it's obvious looking at the PPs does you no good in terms of picking winners so why not try it without PPs. Maybe you would fare better by picking names? Saddle Colors? Pick the Grays?

You must be a Glen Beck Fan. I consistently cash.

[dpkovalesky]

when is the draw? tues?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

when is the draw? tues?

It would be really great if they can do this 1 week in advance so horseplayers have the full weekend before to handicap.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

when is the draw? tues?

I thought Fridays card would be out Monday.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

I'll have to watch the race again.

Dirt stride? I'm not that clever. But, I will say, given her results over there, she appears to handle the turf just fine.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

If it matters, she's considered a very good filly overseas - one of the favorites for the Guineas. Her trainer said recently that her last was a good race, but not her best and she's thriving now. Perhaps she didn't handle the soft ground so well.......she is a big filly and considered to have a ton of potential by the Euros. She's the same as AZ Warrior to me (who I like a lot in the race); if she handles the dirt, she'll be very tough. Of course, just because she's bred for it doesn't mean she'll take to it.

[NTamm1215]

It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

She was a buyback......

Just curious: what's the difference between AZ Warrior, who you thought was a contender in the Frizette if she preferred dirt, and this filly?