Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Not that either scenario is likely to happen but if the logical contenders don't show up in the Classic wouldn't Blind Luck have to get the award before Uncle Mo?

Paul

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

Plus Blind Luck would still have to win her race over a really soft group. Ill likely bet Evening Jewel if she goes in that spot.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

Again, this is a purely academic exercise as neither has a realistic shot to win the title. That said, Uncle Mo, even with a huge win, would have made only three starts on the year. Blind Luck has gone everywhere, danced every dance (even those requiring multiple trips over the rockies) and has won lots of big races. In fact, with a win in the Distaff, Blind Luck will have more grade one wins than Uncle Mo has starts.

The fact that she has lost sonme races is actually a positive in my thinking. It just proves that she had the most ambitious schedule. She entered every big race. She faced every big name in her division. She always ran her race (even in defeat).

If more horses were campaigned like Blind Luck was this year, we would have a much better sport.

Paul

[Indian Charlie]

I'm just surprised anyone would take me seriously about Uncle Mo winning HOY.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'll never stop being amazed that some people actually seem to believe that any speed figure maker ( for most of the ill-informed they use Beyer as the whipping boy for there ignorance ) is somehow responsible for how fast a horse runs.

Horses earn their figures. Good speed figure makers just accurately assess them. The confused just keep on misconstruing this.

[Thunder Gulch]

Whoever the winner of the BC Classic is probably wins it, unless it really is an outsider. If it's a true bomb like Fly Down, they'll likely give it to Zenyatta to appease the public sentiment.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll never stop being amazed that some people actually seem to believe that any speed figure maker ( for most of the ill-informed they use Beyer as the whipping boy for there ignorance ) is somehow responsible for how fast a horse runs.

Horses earn their figures. Good speed figure makers just accurately assess them. The confused just keep on misconstruing this.

That's all fine and dandy, but there are plenty of instances of figure makers fudging their numbers when something doesn't seem logical to them.

This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs.

Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's all fine and dandy, but there are plenty of instances of figure makers fudging their numbers when something doesn't seem logical to them.

This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs.

Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess.

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

So never toss the Arc winner just because? What is your opinion on Workforce?