Chuchill Post Positions

[randallscott35]

Good info. Lets pray they don't ruin the track surface like they did last time.

[randallscott35]

Where was the rail in the above data?

[hockey2315]

How far back is as far as you can go? Do you have posts 1-7 handy?

[Thunder Gulch]

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

Avg field size for post 10 would be 10.38 - that means that post #10 should win at 9.63% - considering the thousand race plus sample size - it's clear that post 10 is at a disadvantage.

Avg field size for post 9 would be 10.01 - thus post 9 should win 9.99%

Avg field size for post 8 would be 9.67 - thus post 8 should win at 10.34%

Avg field size for post 11 would be 11.72 - thus post 11 should win at 8.53%

Avg field size for post 12 would be 12.13 - thus post 12 should win at 8.24%

Basically ....

Post 8: should win 10.34% - wins 9.0% (disadvantaged by 1.34%)

Post 9: should win 9.99% - wins 8.6% (disadvantaged by 1.39%)

Post 10: should win 9.63% - wins 7.7% (disadvantaged by 1.93%)

Post 11: should win 8.53% - wins 5.9% (disadvantaged by 2.63%)

Post 12: should win 8.24% - wins 1.3% (disadvantaged by 6.96%)

Post 13: should win 7.32% - wins 0%

Post 14: should win 7.14% - wins 0%

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Avg field size for post 10 would be ...

What does "would be" mean? Was it the average field size, or are you guessing?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

What does "would be" mean? Was it the average field size, or are you guessing?

No - it's a calculation. No guessing

1,082 horses started from post 10 and the total number of horses who ran in those 1,082 races was 11,230.

[tjfla]

Drugs is this for the Turf or both the Turf and the Turf Mile?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Good info. Lets pray they don't ruin the track surface like they did last time.

I know it's been beaten to death but even though there was 4 winners with saddlecloth #1, the rail bias was overstated. Only Street Sense stayed on the rail the entire time (and all he did was become the first BCJ champ to win the Kentucky Derby.)

BCJF: Dreaming of Anna was a strong favorite and drifted 4 wide on the first turn and the 2nd and 3rd finishers ran outside for at least part of the race.
BCJ: Street Sense stayed on the rail, but the 2nd and 3rd place finishers rallied from far back in the middle of the track.
Sprint: Thor's Echo was 3w despite being the 1. Friendly Island rode the rail as the 2. Nightmare Affair was 3-4w most of the race.
Distaff: Round Pond was on the inside most of the race, but the next three were the 12,13, and 14 and finished on the middle of the track.
Classic: The entire superfecta was out in the middle of the track, and the winner was widest of all.

[Indian Charlie]

If there's one thing I'm confident of, it's that Gio Ponti won't win the mile.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by philcski

I know it's been beaten to death but even though there was 4 winners with saddlecloth #1, the rail bias was overstated. Only Street Sense stayed on the rail the entire time (and all he did was become the first BCJ champ to win the Kentucky Derby.)

BCJF: Dreaming of Anna was a strong favorite and drifted 4 wide on the first turn and the 2nd and 3rd finishers ran outside for at least part of the race.
BCJ: Street Sense stayed on the rail, but the 2nd and 3rd place finishers rallied from far back in the middle of the track.
Sprint: Thor's Echo was 3w despite being the 1. Friendly Island rode the rail as the 2. Nightmare Affair was 3-4w most of the race.
Distaff: Round Pond was on the inside most of the race, but the next three were the 12,13, and 14 and finished on the middle of the track.
Classic: The entire superfecta was out in the middle of the track, and the winner was widest of all.

there was no bias...that day
All 3 races on the undercard that day went wire2wire.
Which made me get off Street Sense and Circular Quay in the Juvy.
the rest of the card was fair.