Why Won't Quality Road Win The Classic?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Tough Tiz's Sis galloped-out past Zenyatta... I thought that was interesting.

That race of Zen's reminded me a little of Afleet Alex's Derby - when he was 11th early and 8+ lengths behind a torrid pace ... he moved a little earlier than he should have considering the pace .. and because of the uncomfortably hot pace and early move he was unable to wear down a dead tired Closing Argument - and unable to hold off Giacomo.

In the Belmont - Rose just waited in 9th behind a crawl - and the slow pace didn't matter because he was so much better than those in front of him.

I'm going to look at my pace figures when the BC Classic draws .. but I think Zenyatta's last few pace figures would have her maybe as much as 25 lengths off of the pace. She'd be in another area code... and Smith simply isn't going to let her completely lose contact with the field - and let horses like Blame and Lookin At Lucky get a 12 length jump on her. Obviously she's going to have to work a whole lot harder early just to keep contact with the field... and who knows what that does to her in the stretch.

You see a horse like Temple City win a stakes race and beat Richard's Kid at Del Mar a few weeks before RK sweeps the Pacific Classic and Goodwood ... Temple City goes to Hawthorne and runs into a torrid pace. He was 9 lengths off of that pace, but it was still SO MUCH faster than he's comfortable going - that the horse just fell apart and was beaten 91 lengths. They're going to run Temple City back in the BC Marathon now - where he would probably open up a 20 length early lead if he went as fast early as he did when he was 9 lengths back at the first pace call at HAW last time.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That race of Zen's reminded me a little of Afleet Alex's Derby - when he was 11th early and 8+ lengths behind a torrid pace ... he moved a little earlier than he should have considering the pace .. and because of the uncomfortably hot pace and early move he was unable to wear down a dead tired Closing Argument - and unable to hold off Giacomo.

In the Belmont - Rose just waited in 9th behind a crawl - and the slow pace didn't matter because he was so much better than those in front of him.

I'm going to look at my pace figures when the BC Classic draws .. but I think Zenyatta's last few pace figures would have her maybe as much as 25 lengths off of the pace. She'd be in another area code... and Smith simply isn't going to let her completely lose contact with the field - and let horses like Blame and Lookin At Lucky get a 12 length jump on her. Obviously she's going to have to work a whole lot harder early just to keep contact with the field... and who knows what that does to her in the stretch.

You see a horse like Temple City win a stakes race and beat Richard's Kid at Del Mar a few weeks before RK sweeps the Pacific Classic and Goodwood ... Temple City goes to Hawthorne and runs into a torrid pace. He was 9 lengths off of that pace, but it was still SO MUCH faster than he's comfortable going - that the horse just fell apart and was beaten 91 lengths. They're going to run Temple City back in the BC Marathon now - where he would probably open up a 20 length early lead if he went as fast early as he did when he was 9 lengths back at the first pace call at HAW last time.

Good stuff. How she reacts to all this remains to be seen, especially on dirt, with dirt closers ahead of her and potential bad or wide trips not considered.