Why Won't Quality Road Win The Classic?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Like last year, Ill be using 2 horses to end all pick 3's and 4's.... Z and QR.

You really think QR can win this? Unless there is a major change in who will be there I will be surprised.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

You really think QR can win this? Unless there is a major change in who will be there I will be surprised.

Yea I do. I think the other speeds are horrible, he will sit 3rd or 4th and I dont see it being that hot up front. Haynesfield is not going 22.3-46... He is going more like 48, just crawling.... QR gives them the slip turning for home, then is he good enough?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Yea I do. I think the other speeds are horrible, he will sit 3rd or 4th and I dont see it being that hot up front. Haynesfield is not going 22.3-46... He is going more like 48, just crawling.... QR gives them the slip turning for home, then is he good enough?

The pace will still be pretty good up front and the 1 1/4 seems too long for him.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think we can tell until we see the final entries, post position draw, and quite possibly even how the track is playing. There was an inside bias at CD a few years ago that impacted the results.

I think it's fair to say that 10F is unlikely to be his optimal distance and the typical BC field will be so loaded with quality speed/pressers that QR is going to find himself in deep waters in the last furlong. However, he wasn't so abysmal at 10F last year to think he couldn't win if the race comes up weaker than expected or he makes the lead easier than expected on a track that's carrying speed.

He was a short and rushed horse for the Travers, but carried his speed a little better the next time despite losing to Summer Bird who was an excellent and peaking rival at the time. In addition, horses without the stamina to get 10f as 3YOs sometimes develop it as 4YOs.

Finally, in his loss to Blame this year I think there is some evidence that the rail was not the best place to be that day. It wasn't until Blame swung out that he wore down QR late while QR was still inside.

Personally, I'm probably going to play against him at the probable odds and likely pace scenario, but I don't hate him as much as some people.

[NTamm1215]

Him not being around is helping everyone forget how bad QR's Woodward was. He stalked the pace then had quite the laborious finish while pulling away from a group that included 3 horses who have been absolutely pummeled in their next start.

He's going to be an underlay in the BCC and horses like Morning Line, First Dude, Haynesfield, Espoir City (while not having serious win chances) are going to make his job a lot tougher.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Him not being around is helping everyone forget how bad QR's Woodward was. He stalked the pace then had quite the laborious finish while pulling away from a group that included 3 horses who have been absolutely pummeled in their next start.

He's going to be an underlay in the BCC and horses like Morning Line, First Dude, Haynesfield, Espoir City (while not having serious win chances) are going to make his job a lot tougher.

Your naming horses who have no problem with 24-48 splits. There is no crazy speed horse thats going to duel him out in this spot. When does he not rate? Ok his finish in the Whitney sucked, still good enough for a big beyer.... Did he rate though or did he runoff?

[hockey2315]

Quality Road isn't the same horse that he once was. He could've been really, really good, but they've never been able to keep him 100% healthy. He won't be a factor.