Brisbet take on Bernie

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

There's no value in a losing play.

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

Value is certainly not betting a 4/5 horse to win, however there can be very good value with that horse on top in an exacta.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

Value is certainly not betting a 4/5 horse to win, however there can be very good value with that horse on top in an exacta.

Um....no. There could easily be a 4:5 shot that is " value " ( what if Bernardini had been 4:5 in the JCGC ).

" Value " is anything where the odds you are receiving are greater than the ACTUAL odds of the event occuring. Obviously this doesn't happen a lot in horse racing, due mostly to the takeout and partially to the efficiency of the betting pools, but it is can happen though its provability in racing is nebulous at best.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Um....no. There could easily be a 4:5 shot that is " value " ( what if Bernardini had been 4:5 in the JCGC ).

" Value " is anything where the odds you are receiving are greater than the ACTUAL odds of the event occuring. Obviously this doesn't happen a lot in horse racing, due mostly to the takeout and partially to the efficiency of the betting pools, but it is can happen though its provability in racing is nebulous at best.

HA! impeccable timing... my thoughts exactly.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

Value is certainly not betting a 4/5 horse to win, however there can be very good value with that horse on top in an exacta.

Sure it is, if you think the horse is 1/5 to win. I'm not ever going to do it (i'd rather play the goddamn slots than bet 4/5 shots all day), but if you have $100,000 lying around and you can get an 80% return on what you believe to be an 80% proposition, you take it every time.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

The problem most people face is the number of trials... they either (a) don't have the proper bankroll for the number of trials required, or (b) don't play enough races WITH an advantage versus WITHOUT (myself included.)

90% of people that go to the track don't understand this concept anyways. A couple times a day at tracks with solid but lesser handle (Monmouth, Md, etc.) you'll see an exacta combination wayyyyy overbet leaving opportunity in other probable combinations. I'll say i'm betting the 5-6 combo even though i don't necessarily prefer either of them over my selection because the exacta's paying $50 for a buck when it should be $15. It invariable the comment comes up following, "well if you don't like them, why bet them??"

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

Point taken and I agree with what you are saying. That was poorly stated on my part.