Can someone please explain this?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Very funny.

This is why I'm asking here...

I can read 20,000 things and still not get it.

Sometimes all it takes is for one person to say this is what this means and why and here's an example and poof! It comes together.

I've read stuff and wouldn't ask here like a pathetic moron if i could understand it without help.

I think it's been explained pretty well by BTW and VJ but if numbers might help jog your brain here's a quick example.

Podunk Downs, 10/5/10, fast track to start the card
Race 1: Kim's Consistent Colt runs 6F in 1:11 3/5 for an 83, whereas we expected an 85. (2 slower than "par")
Race 2: Sam's Slowpoke runs 1 mile in 1:40 1/5 for a 60, whereas we expected a 58. (2 faster than "par")
Race 3: Ronnie's Rabbit Racer runs 6F in 1:12 3/5 for a 70, whereas we expected a 71 (1 slower than "par")

A huge rainstorm hits the track. 1/2" of rain falls between the 3rd and 4th races and the track goes from fast to a sloppy mess.

Race 4: Molly's Mudlark runs 1 mile in 1:42 for a 42, when we expected a 60. (18 slower than "par")
Race 5: Gary's Gator runs 6F in 1:13 for a 64, when we expected an 80. (16 slower than "par")
Race 6: Jan's Jumper runs 6F in 1:14 for a 51, when we expected a 66. (15 slower than "par")

Now, if we assigned the average variant of the day (8) to all the horses, we are going to make the first 3 races look better than they really were and the last 3 worse than they really were. If we split the variant before and after the rainstorm we end up with a 0 before and a 16 after, it puts the numbers much more in line with what we expect and the reality of how the horses actually ran.