Weekend Stakes Beyers

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This one should be good.

After the top three finisher - you could hit a golf ball between the margins of each horse from 4th place to 5th - 5th to 6th - 6th to 7th - and 7th to 8th.

Redding Colliery went way too fast early and somehow held in a race that absolutley collaped in behind him. 2nd and 3rd place were 17.5 lengths and 19.5 lengths back after just 6 furlongs.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20101002&RN=8

RC seems to have run a fucl<ing awesome race... but I have no pace pars or anything from Hawthorne to confirm that water is wet.

Figs for the race are a crapshoot. The only other route is suspect at best, and they never run the 10f distance at Haw except for this race. The chances that 105 are legit after the pace he set are slim and none in my opinion.

Given the above, I have nothing to base this on but common sense. If I used the same variant as Beyer, his numbers for me would be pace of 148 (6f call) and final figure of 106. I am giving him a 142/100, and that comes out to a combined 111 the way I do things, basically matching his career best. It fits pretty well with Giant Oak and give the 3rd place horse a new top by a few points. Am I right? Hell if I know, but it is what I'm putting down on paper.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Figs for the race are a crapshoot. The only other route is suspect at best, and they never run the 10f distance at Haw except for this race. The chances that 105 are legit after the pace he set are slim and none in my opinion.

Given the above, I have nothing to base this on but common sense. If I used the same variant as Beyer, his numbers for me would be pace of 148 (6f call) and final figure of 106. I am giving him a 142/100, and that comes out to a combined 111 the way I do things, basically matching his career best. It fits pretty well with Giant Oak and give the 3rd place horse a new top by a few points. Am I right? Hell if I know, but it is what I'm putting down on paper.

Thanks.

What's your take on the Hollywood Park route Beyer's for Saturday's card? Do you also think they're about 5 points fast?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Thanks.

What's your take on the Hollywood Park route Beyer's for Saturday's card? Do you also think they're about 5 points fast?

That is tougher for me because I don't use the artificial synthetic adjustment that Beyer has made for his rubber numbers. I think he has the variant about right, but that makes my figures 5 to 6 points lower already.