Rachel Alexandra - what would her odds be in the BC Distaff?

[miraja2]

An even-money favorite?!?

Wait....how can that be?

Did you forget to consider that she was a miserable, broken-down horse who hates racing and completely embarrassed herself in every race this year?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I hear ya.

Those people saying stuff like that don't have the slightest clue - and unfortunately - don't actually bet money.

[NoLuvForPletch]

I agree, more than likely a public workout for more than $1M. But I guess when your JJ, is it worth a million dollars to risk something bad happening to what you hope will be producing champion after champion for you? She doesn't have anything to gain by running. My guess is JJ keeps all of her babies, so the BC Distaff champion moniker means nothing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What's to risk? - the odds of racing fatality are pretty remote if he's sound and well.

I have to think the odds of a Jess Jackson fatality before the first RA foal sired by Curlin hits the track are a lot greater.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What's to risk? - the odds of racing fatality are pretty remote if he's sound and well.

I have to think the odds of a Jess Jackson fatality before the first RA foal sired by Curlin hits the track are a lot greater.

Ok Drugs. I laughed. Not bad indeed.

[Thunder Gulch]

Betting odds- probably 6-5.

Fair value odds- 3-1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Betting odds- probably 6-5.

Fair value odds- 3-1

How would she be 3/1 fair value?

Who would be your fair value favorite? Life At Ten? Blind Luck? Havre De Grace?

More importantly - if they came out before the race and said they were sending with RA - who would be willing to go with her on the lead? Life At Ten already tried that once ... and it resulted in a 79 Beyer for her in her only defeat of the entire year. No one would be stupid enough to hook her. She hasn't been allowed an uncontested easy lead since April of '09. She'd jog.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I agree, more than likely a public workout for more than $1M. But I guess when your JJ, is it worth a million dollars to risk something bad happening to what you hope will be producing champion after champion for you? She doesn't have anything to gain by running. My guess is JJ keeps all of her babies, so the BC Distaff champion moniker means nothing.

No offense but this warped view of the sport is absolutely ruining the game at the highest level.

[letswastemoney]

How old is Jess Jackson?

Why the heck would he retire Rachel if he's just going to spend his last days looking for the exact same quality? Even a 90% Rachel is VERY difficult to find and you could spend a lifetime without finding a horse this talented.

Good luck with that JJ. What you want is already yours, and apparently you have decided to retire her.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How old is Jess Jackson?

Why the heck would he retire Rachel if he's just going to spend his last days looking for the exact same quality? Even a 90% Rachel is VERY difficult to find and you could spend a lifetime without finding a horse this talented.

Good luck with that JJ. What you want is already yours, and apparently you have decided to retire her.

The reasoning behind retiring the horse seems pretty simple. Jess Jackson knew that he and his filly were going to be overshadowed if she were to run in the Distaff and that she had no shot in the Classic. How much would it kill him if Zenyatta were to win the Classic and dominate the headlines regardless of what RA did??? So he decided to take his ball and go home.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The reasoning behind retiring the horse seems pretty simple. Jess Jackson knew that he and his filly were going to be overshadowed if she were to run in the Distaff and that she had no shot in the Classic. How much would it kill him if Zenyatta were to win the Classic and dominate the headlines regardless of what RA did??? So he decided to take his ball and go home.

ding ding ding, we have a winner!

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The reasoning behind retiring the horse seems pretty simple. Jess Jackson knew that he and his filly were going to be overshadowed if she were to run in the Distaff and that she had no shot in the Classic. How much would it kill him if Zenyatta were to win the Classic and dominate the headlines regardless of what RA did??? So he decided to take his ball and go home.

someone said this was a winner...but, i don't know. the woodward and the schedule as a 3 yo was a killer for her. i thought she would retire last year. after she lost and they did not run her in the appleblossom ...i thought she would not race again....but, she did and lost a couple more times to horses that could not touch her the year before. so face it, those saying she was 90% are not even close. she is probably like 80% the horse she was. jackson probably came to his senses (unlike the emotional fan base) and said this horse has had enough. i saw the race up here and we felt bad for her after...she ran her guts out. bullet work outs are meaningless if the horse does not have it in the afternoon. i really believe that jackson did the right thing for this horse....even though he was actually late doing it. he was riding the same emotions that all the people that are mad about it are still riding. it was pretty much over after last season.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How old is Jess Jackson?

born February 18, 1930 - AGE 80

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No offense but this warped view of the sport is absolutely ruining the game at the highest level.

I never said I wouldn't run her. Nor do I say I agree with the decision not to run her.

But honestly, it does seem as though she has more to lose than to gain running in the Distaff.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I never said I wouldn't run her. Nor do I say I agree with the decision not to run her.

But honestly, it does seem as though she has more to lose than to gain running in the Distaff.

I completely disagree. I think she has nothing to lose. I think pretty much everyone concedes she never reached last year's level, so losing again would be further confirmation. If she popped and won, however, it would be quite an achievement.

The decision is being overshadowed by Zenyatta, whom Jess let get in his head a long time ago with this ridiculous schedule. IMO, RA would still have a much better chance at the Distaff than Z has at the Classic.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I completely disagree. I think she has nothing to lose. I think pretty much everyone concedes she never reached last year's level, so losing again would be further confirmation. If she popped and won, however, it would be quite an achievement.

The decision is being overshadowed by Zenyatta, whom Jess let get in his head a long time ago with this ridiculous schedule. IMO, RA would still have a much better chance at the Distaff than Z has at the Classic.

If she wins the Distaff, what race do you harken back to as the fondest memory of her career? The Kentucky Oaks, The Preakness, The Haskell, The Woodward or the Distaff?

My thoughts are they rank:

Woodward
Kentucky Oaks
Preakness
Distaff
Haskell

No matter what she does in the race, her legend has peaked. I don't think she would, but should she get beat, again, it takes just that much more luster off of what she has already accomplished. It's just my opinion, and I am a fan. She gave us a lot of thrills last year, and anyone that was at the Woodward knows they got down to the very bottom that day. I would have bet a lot of money that they would have retired her as HOY.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I never said I wouldn't run her. Nor do I say I agree with the decision not to run her.

But honestly, it does seem as though she has more to lose than to gain running in the Distaff.

But that is the whole point. That so many in the game feel like there is something to lose by running and potentially losing. In her case in particular, what is there to lose? She probably can't win any year end awards at this point unless she were to do something spectacular like win the Classic or win the Distaff in a romp and come back and wind up her career with a win in the Clark coupled with a stranger winning the Classic. While these scenarios are unlikely, winning the Beldame and Distaff would have been a great ending to a tremendous career. Simply bowing out for no real reason other than owners enormus ego really is not a fitting ending for a horse like her.

The eclipse awards have suddenly become far too important which is ironic considering that the winners are usually quickly forgotten.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

winning the Beldame and Distaff would have been a great ending to a tremendous career. Simply bowing out for no real reason other than owners enormus ego really is not a fitting ending for a horse like her.