What do you make of Blame's loss yesterday?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I don't see why Blame suddenly is going to be a square price in the BCC. He's the only horse out of the likely favorites that is proven over the surface. Smart money will keep his odds in line with QR and Zenyatta and it wouldn't surprise me if he is the post time favorite.
I don't see it.

At this point he strikes me as the most likely winner, but I think you might be underestimating the love for Zenyatta. If she's in the race, I think she will almost certainly be the post-time favorite because betting or cheering against her has become sacrilege for many.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by miraja2

At this point he strikes me as the most likely winner, but I think you might be underestimating the love for Zenyatta. If she's in the race, I think she will almost certainly be the post-time favorite because betting or cheering against her has become sacrilege for many.

Maybe. There are more question marks this year than last. The biggest one is the surface. The competition this year competes primarily on dirt and Blame has 3 wins out of 4 starts at Churchill, never been out of the money in 12 starts and a running style comparable to Zenyatta.
The JCGC is not a big blemish on his record considering the horse that won is now 5 for 6 on that surface.
I think the "love for Zenyatta" is more hype than it's made out to be and based on a few radicals on message boards and the guy in the white tank top.

Well he isn't good because he lost. Good horses don't lose races.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Maybe. There are more question marks this year than last. The biggest one is the surface. The competition this year competes primarily on dirt and Blame has 3 wins out of 4 starts at Churchill, never been out of the money in 12 starts and a running style comparable to Zenyatta.
The JCGC is not a big blemish on his record considering the horse that won is now 5 for 6 on that surface.

These are all perfectly logical points in Blame's favor.

As such, they will have little impact on those who want to bet on Zenyatta in the BCC.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I've never been a big fan of Blame. I think he's been very fortunate to be around at a time when both the 3yo male and older male division have been horrid.

He does have one thing going for him ... the Whitney was the toughest field assembled in America this year ... and he won that race.

Quality Road, Haynesfield, and Jardim were all romping next out winners exiting that race.

Jardim (beaten 20 lengths in the Whitney) took a 100K stakes race at Hoosier on Saturday by 7 lengths at 9/1 odds.

Haynesfield won the JCGC hadily by a big margin at 7/1 odds.

Haynesfield had a huge excuse in the Whitney though. He smashed through the gate before the start. And after being reloaded - Dominguez opten to rate off of QR - and he found himself pinned in behind Quality Road by a pyschotic Rajiv Maragh on Musket Man. He was shoulder to shoulder with Musket Man going into the far turn and litterally had to push him sideways to get out of the box Maragh put him in.

I remember commenting when I was watching the race - and posting it on here later - "who does Maragh think Haynesfield is? Cigar?"

As incredibly stupid as it was - I kind of understand why he felt the need to attempt to press an unpressured Quality Road ... but why he needed to race ride Haynesfield, put him in a box, and exchange bumps and contact with him to keep him in I really have no idea. It was truly a gem of stupidity.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've never been a big fan of Blame. I think he's been very fortunate to be around at a time when both the 3yo male and older male division have been horrid.

He does have one thing going for him ... the Whitney was the toughest field assembled in America this year ... and he won that race.

Quality Road, Haynesfield, and Jardim were all romping next out winners exiting that race.

Jardim (beaten 20 lengths in the Whitney) took a 100K stakes race at Hoosier on Saturday by 7 lengths at 9/1 odds.

Haynesfield won the JCGC hadily by a big margin at 7/1 odds.

Haynesfield had a huge excuse in the Whitney though. He smashed through the gate before the start. And after being reloaded - Dominguez opten to rate off of QR - and he found himself pinned in behind Quality Road by a pyschotic Rajiv Maragh on Musket Man. He was shoulder to shoulder with Musket Man going into the far turn and litterally had to push him sideways to get out of the box Maragh put him in.

I remember commenting when I was watching the race - and posting it on here later - "who does Maragh think Haynesfield is? Cigar?"

As incredibly stupid as it was - I kind of understand why he felt the need to attempt to press an unpressured Quality Road ... but why he needed to race ride Haynesfield, put him in a box, and exchange bumps and contact with him to keep him in I really have no idea. It was truly a gem of stupidity.

Maragh is about as bright as the coach of the AZ Cards, no?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Maragh is about as bright as the coach of the AZ Cards, no?

I don't know what it is about him - but his numbers are ok on the turf - and good in sprints - for whatever reason, his numbers are god awful - year in and year out in dirt routes.

I don't normally see a lot of stupitiy from him or his riding.

But yeah, "Derrick Anderson gives us a lot at the QB position"

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by miraja2

These are all perfectly logical points in Blame's favor.

As such, they will have little impact on those who want to bet on Zenyatta in the BCC.

I disagree.
I'd be willing to give her post time odds if she is favored and take her odds if she's not provided LAL,QR, and Blame run.

[outofthebox]

For some reason, he never looked good to me. He should have been under a strangle hold off those fractions, and not off the bit like he was. Rail Trips been working in 11 and 12 at Aqueduct, and hes struggling to keep up with a 13 pace. Cant figure it. Just a total toss in my mind. Just inflates his odds if your planning on betting him in the classic.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

For some reason, he never looked good to me. He should have been under a strangle hold off those fractions, and not off the bit like he was. Rail Trips been working in 11 and 12 at Aqueduct, and hes struggling to keep up with a 13 pace. Cant figure it. Just a total toss in my mind. Just inflates his odds if your planning on betting him in the classic.

Too much is made about naked fractions like that. Unless you have pace and final time pars and charts - and you can use them to account for the speed of the track - you can't really gauge fractions well.

I have them for every distance at Belmont except 10fs and 12fs... so I'm in the same boat with everyone else.

But, that 10 furlong start at Belmont is right on the first turn - and I'm sure that makes the pace appear slower than it really is.

If anyone remembers last years Jockey Club Gold Cup - two high quality speed horses in Tizway and Quality Road were up front setting a 49.73 pace ... and neither had any answer late for Summer Bird.

49.73 doesn't mean much when you don't have the right information to quantify it.

[outofthebox]

I hear what your saying about the start of the 1 1/4 races. And the fact that they load from outside in really puts that first fraction in a league of its own. I still dont like the way he was travelling, just never looked comfortable..

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

For some reason, he never looked good to me. He should have been under a strangle hold off those fractions, and not off the bit like he was. Rail Trips been working in 11 and 12 at Aqueduct, and hes struggling to keep up with a 13 pace. Cant figure it. Just a total toss in my mind. Just inflates his odds if your planning on betting him in the classic.

I'll be surprised if we ever see him again.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'll be surprised if we ever see him again.

But for the fact that Rail Trip's a gelding, I'd agree completely. He had an aluminum pad on, (opening at 10-1) the board said that Rail Trip was "dead," and he didn't even gallop out to the turn on Saturday.