Perryville -G3 Keeneland Friday...wow.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I was skeptical too but it really doesn't seem that bad. Just factor in that both dirt and turf horses like it and cap from there.

U say that but I haven't seen any indication that dirt horses like it anywhere near as much as turf horses like it. Of course, more dirt horses will win on it because far more are entered but it seems that when there is a good turf horse entered, he has the advantage. All things being equal from a handicapping perspective, I'm taking the grass horses over the dirt ones on this junk.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U say that but I haven't seen any indication that dirt horses like it anywhere near as much as turf horses like it. Of course, more dirt horses will win on it because far more are entered but it seems that when there is a good turf horse entered, he has the advantage. All things being equal from a handicapping perspective, I'm taking the grass horses over the dirt ones on this junk.

Well if you look at the form coming in Asi Siempre was a better horse than Happy Ticket. The only one that could have beat her was Spun Sugar who you never know when she'll fire. If Bernardini met English Channel on polytrack he'd have no problem with him since he's the better horse. I really haven't seen a really good dirt horse get taken down by an average turf horse yet. Perhaps when all things are equal the advantage goes to the turf horse but I don't think it is a significant advantage.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Well if you look at the form coming in Asi Siempre was a better horse than Happy Ticket. The only one that could have beat her was Spun Sugar who you never know when she'll fire. If Bernardini met English Channel on polytrack he'd have no problem with him since he's the better horse. I really haven't seen a really good dirt horse get taken down by an average turf horse yet. Perhaps when all things are equal the advantage goes to the turf horse but I don't think it is a significant advantage.

I don't agree at all that Asi Siempre was the better horse coming in. She was 1-1-1 in five starts on the year and the highest level she's ever actually won at was grade three and had never run on dirt. Meanwhile, Happy Ticket was 2-3-0 in five starts, has won a grade two this year and narrowly missed in a grade one and has won multiple graded stakes on the dirt at several distances. I can't agree at all with the assessment that u never know when Spun Sugar will fire. She had only been off the board once in her 11 career starts so it seems to me that she fires just about every time. In addition to that, in her six career races around two-turns, she was 5-1-0. How do u make the claim that u never know when she'll fire? In her two-turn races, she's handled Keeneland, Pimlico, Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Oaklawn. If anything, she's shown that she's very consistent and doesn't need to take her track with her.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't agree at all that Asi Siempre was the better horse coming in. She was 1-1-1 in five starts on the year and the highest level she's ever actually won at was grade three and had never run on dirt. Meanwhile, Happy Ticket was 2-3-0 in five starts, has won a grade two this year and narrowly missed in a grade one and has won multiple graded stakes on the dirt at several distances. I can't agree at all with the assessment that u never know when Spun Sugar will fire. She had only been off the board once in her 11 career starts so it seems to me that she fires just about every time. In addition to that, in her six career races around two-turns, she was 5-1-0. How do u make the claim that u never know when she'll fire? In her two-turn races, she's handled Keeneland, Pimlico, Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Oaklawn. If anything, she's shown that she's very consistent and doesn't need to take her track with her.

The Distaff division is weak compared to the FM Turf. Using Beyers Asi Siempre looked better coming in than Happy Ticket. Spun Sugar might do well in her races but her figures are all over the place. She has about two or three lifetime races that she had a high enough figure to run with Asi Siempre.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The Distaff division is weak compared to the FM Turf. Using Beyers Asi Siempre looked better coming in than Happy Ticket. Spun Sugar might do well in her races but her figures are all over the place. She has about two or three lifetime races that she had a high enough figure to run with Asi Siempre.

Ok. Sorry, but I disagree that Asi Siempre looked better than Happy Ticket going in. Maybe u saw something that most everyone else didn't though. Happy Ticket was 8/5 and Asi Siempre was 9/2.

Just for the record, Asi Siempre was one of my top two plays for the race.....but only because she was proven on grass, not because I thought she looked better coming in.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok. Sorry, but I disagree that Asi Siempre looked better than Happy Ticket going in. Maybe u saw something that most everyone else didn't though. Happy Ticket was 8/5 and Asi Siempre was 9/2.

Just for the record, Asi Siempre was one of my top two plays for the race.....but only because she was proven on grass, not because I thought she looked better coming in.

I don't have the slightest idea how anyone could say a horse like Asi Siempre was a better horse, none. I mean she'd won one race all year, and failed against the stop dogs in her own division. Whatever, just let her line up in he gate at CD on BC day in the Distaff and we'll see just who shes better than.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok. Sorry, but I disagree that Asi Siempre looked better than Happy Ticket going in. Maybe u saw something that most everyone else didn't though. Happy Ticket was 8/5 and Asi Siempre was 9/2.

Just for the record, Asi Siempre was one of my top two plays for the race.....but only because she was proven on grass, not because I thought she looked better coming in.

I'll post the figures tonight, I don't have them here. I'm sure some discounted her because she was a turf horse and the race was on "dirt". Others probably looked at her record and saw she wasn't winning as much as the dirt horses in the easier Distaff division.

It would be insane if they went to the Distaff with Asi Siempre though. A turf horse running well on polytrack does not mean they will magically like the dirt.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'll post the figures tonight, I don't have them here. I'm sure some discounted her because she was a turf horse and the race was on "dirt". Others probably looked at her record and saw she wasn't winning as much as the dirt horses in the easier Distaff division.

It would be insane if they went to the Distaff with Asi Siempre though. A turf horse running well on polytrack does not mean they will magically like the dirt.

Don't bother with the figures. They don't mean much of anything to me when I've been able to see the races for myself. I mostly only use figures in handicapping horses I haven't seen.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The Distaff division is weak compared to the FM Turf.

I dont agree with this. You have Pine Island and Balletto who should love and need every inch of the track, you have Healthy Addiction on a roll coming from the West... she's classy and seasoned.

Then you have Fleet Indian, Spun Sugar, and Happy Ticket who have all proven themselves one time or another to be real dangerous when given the chance.

And then you have the unknown of Asi Siempre.

It might not be a full field, but each member is distinguished in their own right. And almost anybody could make a case for any one of these mares to win.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Balletto

I dont agree with this. You have Pine Island and Balletto who should love and need every inch of the track, you have Healthy Addiction on a roll coming from the West... she's classy and seasoned.

Then you have Fleet Indian, Spun Sugar, and Happy Ticket who have all proven themselves one time or another to be real dangerous when given the chance.

And then you have the unknown of Asi Siempre.

It might not be a full field, but each member is distinguished in their own right. And almost anybody could make a case for any one of these mares to win.

I think the Distaff will be a fantastic race this year, I just don't think any of the horses are especially good. I like Pine Island and Balletto for the exacta but they aren't exactly throwing 100+ Beyers up left and right like Gorella, Film Maker, Honey Ryder, Wait a While, and Asi Siempre are in the FM Turf division. My point is we shouldn't be too surprised that the sixth or seventh best horse in the FM Turf division can beat the second or third best horse in the Distaff division on a track that plays to both turf and dirt.

Oh man that's too many horses!! Obviously polytrack isn't working out! Calgon take me away to JCGC day! Whooo now we're talkin!