Breeders Cup Analysis

[wac]

I know its a ways away but i was bored one weekend and started looking at the results of the different races from the last 10 or so years and just figuring out the avg win price, exa, tri, super prices along with how well favs do vs. horses 15-1 or higher in each race and the results this far have been kind of interesting but am i basically wasting my time or do you guys think what im doing has some value? If so am i looking at the right things and if not what should i be looking at.

I understand that every year is different and that every race is different but it is interesting to see what the avg prices are in some races year after year. Any insight would be welcome.

[hockey2315]

I think it's interesting, but won't be particularly fruitful betting wise.

We all know that longshots do well, the pay-offs are good, etc...

You're better off doing extra handicapping work if you really want to get started now. . . But it'd be hard to know what to even look at at this point.

If you're really bored and are looking for a stat to compute - take a look at how non-favored Euros (in relation to other Euros in a given race) have done in Grade I's in North America. I think the ROI is extremely high, but have never had the time to calculate it.

[clyde]

The BC is the best horseys in their groups.

So big names get over bet...but are not worthy.




It took me about 3 seconds to do that study.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think it's interesting, but won't be particularly fruitful betting wise.

We all know that longshots do well, the pay-offs are good, etc...

You're better off doing extra handicapping work if you really want to get started now. . . But it'd be hard to know what to even look at at this point.

If you're really bored and are looking for a stat to compute - take a look at how non-favored Euros (in relation to other Euros in a given race) have done in Grade I's in North America. I think the ROI is extremely high, but have never had the time to calculate it.

Didn't you close me out in our contest with that Other Euro angle last year?

[hockey2315]

Yup. . . It's the best. Lahaleeb, Spirit One, Debussy, Vale of York, Winchester, Raven's Pass, Conduit the first time, Red Rocks. . . the list goes on.

[Gate Dancer]

I'm not trying to be a 'shill' here but what you're doing is basically what Jim Mazur and the folks at Progressive Handicapping do on a regular basis for their Breeders Cup products. I have purchased some of the info about every 4 years to see what the common factors are that identify which horses have the characteristics to run big in each of the races. While each year and race stand on their own, it is interesting to see the common thread that may help you catch a price or two. Usually you only need to hit one race to help make a profit for the weekend. Obviously they don't have as much 'history' on some of the newer races but they are building trends on those too.

Website is www.proghandicap.com if you're interested.

[miraja2]

Trying to identify any "trends" or "angles" seems completely futile to me, especially given that the event isn't even held at the same location each year.
When I'm handicapping a bunch of races held at CD in 2010, I'm not particularly interested in what happened at Gulfstream in 1992, or Lone Star Park in 2004, etc. I don't see how any information from those sources could be the least bit useful. I just handicap the BC the exact same way I would any other day, using the exact same approach.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I'm not trying to be a 'shill' here but what you're doing is basically what Jim Mazur and the folks at Progressive Handicapping do on a regular basis for their Breeders Cup products. I have purchased some of the info about every 4 years to see what the common factors are that identify which horses have the characteristics to run big in each of the races. While each year and race stand on their own, it is interesting to see the common thread that may help you catch a price or two. Usually you only need to hit one race to help make a profit for the weekend. Obviously they don't have as much 'history' on some of the newer races but they are building trends on those too.

Website is www.proghandicap.com if you're interested.

Their product is very useful for Multi race players. P3 is a sweet spot and ever year you have a couple paying 4 figures..

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Trying to identify any "trends" or "angles" seems completely futile to me, especially given that the event isn't even held at the same location each year.
When I'm handicapping a bunch of races held at CD in 2010, I'm not particularly interested in what happened at Gulfstream in 1992, or Lone Star Park in 2004, etc. I don't see how any information from those sources could be the least bit useful. I just handicap the BC the exact same way I would any other day, using the exact same approach.

Not to mention the horses are campaigned differently...it's like the people who insist that a horse can't win the Derby 5 weeks out.

[smuthg]

not to get totally off the subject at hand, but my recollection is that Brisnet has in previous years put together a set of advanced PPs for likely Breeders' Cup contenders (there is generally a link to the PPs) on some of the futures websites... I haven't been able to locate them this year; has anyone seen them?

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by smuthg

not to get totally off the subject at hand, but my recollection is that Brisnet has in previous years put together a set of advanced PPs for likely Breeders' Cup contenders (there is generally a link to the PPs) on some of the futures websites... I haven't been able to locate them this year; has anyone seen them?

I guess I could start by looking on the Brisnet website...

[clyde]

Well ask a stupid question and look what happens.

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